Has anyone here read Taleb's book "Antifragile"?
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Has anyone here read Taleb's book "Antifragile"?
There is a thread called:Quote:
Originally Posted by jgjgjg
What are you Reading?
~Richard
Thanks! Will check it out.
Yes, it's called bubble wrap.Quote:
Originally Posted by jgjgjg
Couldja expand on that, please? :hmmm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Splashone
wouldn't a rock be antifragile?
A rock is "robust": environmental volatility has little effect on it up to a certain point.Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin
Fragile: for the situation in question, volatility makes this weaker. From a personal finance perspective (for example), debt is a severe fragilizer. Volatility in expenses or income can easily cause an indebted persons life to spiral out of control. Occasionally you see the sob story of a person who's life is in a horrible place because they got a speeding ticket, couldn't pay it and.... Or, they got the speeding ticket and paid it but couldn't make the car payment, so lost the car, lost their job, etc. The ticket was financial volatility to which they were fragile.
Robust: volatility doesn't affect something one way or another. A person has no debt, owns their house, owns the fifty acres of land it sits on, is in excellent health, and hardly leaves the house. The volatility of the world could easily pass them by. So does opportunity. They are a rock (they are a rock, they are a rock, they are an eeyeyeeeeyeelaaaaaand!) :o
Antifragile: Takes advantage of (creates????) life's little assymetries. They are 'robust' to downside risk: job loss, speeding tickets, (bad) crazy women. But, they have volatility in their life that could have significant upside. I really, really want to understand this in a very personal and practical way....and I don't. But I see it from afar. For an example, look into the life of any wildly successful person in any field, ESPECIALLY in STEM or Business. Trace their story far enough back and you will almost always find some random encounter this is both very odd from a 'right place right time' perspective AND from a 'looking for love at this particular moment' perspective. The thing about that is....Taleb I think would say that that one random moment was not one random moments, it was one of a great number of random moments combined with the ability to recognize that particular moment for what it was.
Anyway, I'm looking for people who have read about and thought about the book. The book has grabbed me by both ears and screamed "LOOK AT ME!!!!". I am now trying to really understand how to change my life to apply its principles.
Sounds interesting to me, but I haven't read or heard of the book until now.
From what you've explained it's a term generalizing particular dynamics, essentially sorting volatility/fluctuations in terms of having positive effect vs. negative.
The real question is can you do it based on general principles ahead of time vs. just in hindsight. And if there is anything new to be learned from it than what's already known, e.g. Henry Ford failed twice (bankruptcy scale failure) before getting it right.
That's of course my thoughts based on my understanding of your description, so it may be completely missing what it's about.
His point would be that you cannot predict, but you can do some things in advance. One, you can seek "assymetrical" options: the downside is low, and (more importantly) known but the upside is potentially very high but unknown. Two, you can insulate yourself from downside risk. One example he uses: writers can go get a government job with light demands and little risk of job-loss. The 'robustifies' income. Then, write. If people hate your work, you're only out the effort (known downside). If they LOVE your work, you can become quite rich.Quote:
Originally Posted by gugi
I can describe this from the book. What I really want to figure out is how to apply it.
Bump.....bump bumpy bump.
Just received the book... later....
~Richard
From your examples so far it sounds like recategorization of things that should be obvious (e.g. risk management, taking advantage of arbitrage, etc.) and you will never get a recipe for your specific circumstances.
For example if there's an arbitrage opportunity those who recognize it will quickly start exploiting it until the losing side catches on and puts and end to it - if somebody is broadcasting instead of utilizing it most likely it's because that's the more profitable or lower risk route for them to take advantage of it.
Or in the case of the risk management with a career switch - that works if you want to be an author, but usually doesn't work if you want to strike out on your own in your current area of employment (typically you must make a clean break with your employer before turning into their competitor or you may end up in serious legal trouble).