North Korea shelling populated South Korean Island

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Originally Posted by CDogg

I'm not suggesting Russia enter into a conflict simply because it has less to lose than China - I'm only suggesting that if Russia were to enter, they may be unpredictable, while China may be more cooperative.

Don't forget that Russia helped create the People's Republic of North Korea, and even installed Kim Il-sung as the first leader of the country. They've maintained their alliance ever since, despite international pressure and UN pleading.

I'm not saying the two governments are the best of friends, either, just worth keeping an eye on. Again, I'm hoping for the best, and will be keeping an eye on the news.

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Good points you have here,

Russia has not much to gain with NK, even more than 50% of its foreign trade is with the west these days. I have no exact numbers here (i'm currently at work with poor network connections). Only think i can imagine that Russia would try to gain some diplomatic points here if it manages to setlle down this situation via negotiations. I'm not trying to symphatize our eastern neighbor here, but i'm quite sure that it doesn't do anything that would risk its own interests.

However we've taken a step too far here, as the situation is already calming down there (according to news).

But it is sort of funny: all it takes is a few lunatics on the other side of the globe, and people are already preparing for the WW3.

It's going to be alright, they're your allies now. :D
YouTube - Sarah Palin "we gotta stand with our North Korean allies"

Despite the fall of the Berlin wall the cold war is not over it has simply changed tactics, for the most part it has moved from a military stalemate to an economic war. Though it may appear that NK is the last vestige of Cold War Communism and is outdated to say the least, there are a number of things to keep in mind, the truce procured in Pan Mun Jom is just a truce, the two nations are still at war, the North is always provoking the South to look tough, there is a Regime change the new boss must look tough. The NK is still a slave to both China and Russia, the NK exports slaves to both nations to pay debts. They are basically Chinas dog. Who says this is not a manipulation by China? They get to appear reasonable while at the same time they rattle their puppets sabre.

If it came to knuckles between the two, the South would kick the Norths butt, if it werent for the threat of Chinese or Russian involvement. China is now a Superpower thanks to globalization, while the US is mired in debt and without the factories it once had to support a large military, China is on the rise and it has been many years since China felt important, maybe she feels young again.

If it were me, I would re negotiate Japans status and let them build their defense forces under the American umbrella, I think this would do a lot to keep tabs on the capitalistic communists in China as well as the totalitarians in NK.

Things seem to have cooled down... there are joint South Korean and American nanouvers planned and the North Koreans seemed to have cooled down...
Was this another false alarm or will we see more stupidity in the region?

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Originally Posted by nun2sharp

If it came to knuckles between the two, the South would kick the Norths butt, if it werent for the threat of Chinese or Russian involvement. China is now a Superpower thanks to globalization, while the US is mired in debt and without the factories it once had to support a large military, China is on the rise and it has been many years since China felt important, maybe she feels young again.

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Well, SK has the US, which has more military oomph than China. SK alone could probably not beat NK alone.
But be that as it may, no matter who wins, NK alone has the potential to kill 1 million SKns before the real fighting starts.

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Originally Posted by nun2sharp

If it were me, I would re negotiate Japans status and let them build their defense forces under the American umbrella

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A Japanese army will do nothing to reduce tensions in that area. If anything, both Koreas and China will get very suspicious and touchy.

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Originally Posted by nun2sharp

I think this would do a lot to keep tabs on the capitalistic communists in China as well as the totalitarians in NK.

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NK can stomp any conventional assault, except for an American one ( because the US can outmuscle anyone). The threat of nukes and that muscle keeps NK confined. Japan does not scare NK at all. For one, they will never have the muscle of the US, and they will never have nukes.

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Originally Posted by fpessanha

Was this another false alarm or will we see more stupidity in the region?

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Yes, and yes.
It's a big game of chicken, with 1 million SK lives being gambled against NK self preservation.

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Originally Posted by Sailor

It is really difficult to see any logic in the actions of North Korea. Looks like the last socialistic state of the world tries to dig blood of its own nose.
However i think it will settle down as has happened so many times before.

Sometimes small crises tend to escalate but i do not think it will happen this time. If i does, then it is soon no fun for all of us.

I'm sorry for those who have to suffer for the ideas of few lunatics.

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Not so difficult....NK has a food shortage....start a war...people die....less food needed plus the chance of conquering some new territory which can provide food.

Pretty simple (if insane) if you think about it.

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Originally Posted by LX_Emergency

Not so difficult....NK has a food shortage....start a war...people die....less food needed plus the chance of conquering some new territory which can provide food.

Pretty simple (if insane) if you think about it.

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That is a horrible picture you are painting here. Of course you might be right, but there are many factors that speak against it.

One thing, imho, is almost sure. If Kim-Jong-Il (or his successor) is about take his country into full-time war, it will also mean the ending of his rule. Way or another. Sooner or later. In the end his country would be ruined and destroyed, probably occupied with western and/or Chinese troops that getting back to old regime would be impossible. Kim-Jong-Whoever knows this. He might be lunatic but who's to say he is stupid or suicidal?

Remember that it is almost impossible for us in the west to get any reliable and objective information on Absurdistan (eh i meant North Korea).

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Originally Posted by LX_Emergency

Not so difficult....NK has a food shortage....start a war...people die....less food needed plus the chance of conquering some new territory which can provide food.

Pretty simple (if insane) if you think about it.

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I don't think so.
First of all, Kim Jong Il doesn't care about the peasants, nor is he feeding them. And the food that he is eating is going to be his, no matter what.
Second, conquering territory is out of the question. There is no way that SK is going to give up even a centimeter of land, and the US will not allow SK to faail.

It's a cat's cradle. A stalemate. The only question is whether Kim Jong Il is world-weary enough to commit national and literal suicide by doing something terribly disproportionate.

It's a high-stakes betting game, and nobody should move. Insane leaders complicate that.

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Originally Posted by Bruno

I don't think so.
First of all, Kim Jong Il doesn't care about the peasants, nor is he feeding them. And the food that he is eating is going to be his, no matter what.
Second, conquering territory is out of the question. There is no way that SK is going to give up even a centimeter of land, and the US will not allow SK to faail.

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Oh I never said he cared. But hungry (and dying) people cause problems.

And I never said he could actually conquer anything.....he might think so though.