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This is not good.
Two Koreas exchange fire across maritime border | ReutersQuote:
SEOUL—North Korea fired artillery rockets at South Korea's Yeonpyeong island near a disputed maritime border Tuesday, setting houses on fire in its small villages, and prompting the south to return fire and dispatch fighter jets to the area.
It is really difficult to see any logic in the actions of North Korea. Looks like the last socialistic state of the world tries to dig blood of its own nose.
However i think it will settle down as has happened so many times before.
Sometimes small crises tend to escalate but i do not think it will happen this time. If i does, then it is soon no fun for all of us.
I'm sorry for those who have to suffer for the ideas of few lunatics.
I feel desperately for the people of South Korea, but I am hoping on everything I believe about human nature that their leaders recognize this as the actions of an irrational man, and let it go by without escalation... I fear that Kim Jung-Ill has little that ties him to this world, and that he may be eager for a justification to play with some of his "toys."
Otoh, I have also heard that the South Koreans were holding a military exercise in a contested border area. So that would make it provoked.
Not taking sides here, and I acknowledge that Kim Jong Il is indeed a wacko, but it is entirely possible that this is not an unprovoked attack.
The particular island where this happened has long been a sore point between the two countries.
As I recall it stems from the fact that the North refuses to recognise the unilateral border that was drawn by the UN after the 1950-53 Korean War.
The other problem is that the North is claiming they have new uranium enrichment facilities and have also just appointed Kim Jon Il's son as successor, so they are looking to flex their muscles a bit I suspect.
At the same time the South doesnt help because they were allegedly holding military exercises near the border.
I just hope that the South doesnt react with a knee jerk reaction because then the whole situation might kick off. I dont think they will as they are much more in touch with the whole "diplomatic" thing, but the whole region is a powder keg at the moment.
Very worrying.
I do not see how firing rockets into a civilian inhabited island is a justified response for a military exercise near the border. The South Korean military should be able to hold exercises and stay prepared. An appropriate response would have been North Korean military exercises of their own near the border.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
As far as I am concerned, this still qualifies as an unprovoked attack by my estimation.
It matters because the territory is contested and holding military exercises in such areas, especially with preexisting tensions is comparable to walking up to Mike Tyson, and yelling 'Hey ****face, your mother reeks of elderberries'.
While it would be technically against the laws for him to punch your head from your torso, it would not exactly be unprovoked or unexpected, right?
Actually, wrong. Screaming and insulting someone does not warrant being beaten physically. Mike Tyson would be perfectly within his right to yell back and hurl his own insults. In fact, in the eyes of the law, in your example, Mike Tyson would be arrested for criminal assault and could be sued civilly for battery.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
I do understand your point, but I question how "exercises" equates to "bombing."
I am not saying it isn't wrong. I said it should not be unexected.
And such exercises in disputed territory are almost always held to test the reactions of the other side. If no reaction, then a de facto military presence can be established.
Also, you'll note that the territory is constested. SK has said that it belongs to them, and NK does not agree. So from their pov it is an invasion.
Understood. I guess a better conclusion on my part would have been that the provocation did not justify this type or reaction.
It would seem that as the Korean situation is coming closer and closer to a head, Japanese trigger fingers are becoming itchier and itchier.
I've long thought that a third world war would be fought in Asia before the Middle East, and I'm hoping that a forced regime change in North Korea will happen before it comes to that.
Meh.Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
I don't think so.
The Japanese can't do a thing. Their trigger fingers may itch, but other than bombing them with sushi, they can't do much. The Chinese will not want to denounce them openly, nor drop them completely. SK can write an angry letter to KJI and not much more than that. Th eonly ones in a position to really do something are the Americans. And they can't do a thing because open assault means 1 million SKns get shelled instantly by the largest artillery volley in past and future history.
Unless I am seriously wrong, there will be some bullets exchanged, a lot of angry talk and propaganda, and nothing will change. The only option I see for a military operation is to evacuate ALL SKns before launching the attack. That is hardly likely, and will cause death on a scale not seen since WW2, on both sides unless the US flattens NK with hydrogen megaton bombs.
So all in all.... same old same old until NK changes from within. That might happen in the aftermath of KJI dying, but probably not as long as there is no dissent within the military.
That regime is so regimented I cant imagine it changing much when KJI goes. I hope it does, I'm just not holding my breath!
I agree, I think theres going to be loads of sabre rattling, people "condemning X in the severest terms" and possibly a few shots exchanged but that'll probably be the end of it.
As I said before, this is a regime that claims it is developing nuclear weapons and will soon have a new leader. They're flexing their muscles and making a noise in the hope of getting a reaction that will allow them to retaliate. If they do have nukes the worst thing anyone could do is retaliate. Far better to go the diplomatic route and take the higher ground I think! They're just looking for an excuse to pop a few rockets off at SK, and have been since the '50's.
N Korea is like the family dog who has learned over the years what action to take to get what it wants and let everyone know he's around.
They do it because they know they can get away with it and no one will do anything to them. It's as simple as that.
All this is really scary... but I've grown out of believing that this might escalate. Here's why:
I read in the NYTimes today that the disputed island is the base of several hundreds of south korean marines. It is indeed the home of a couple of hundreds of fishermen that, according to the NYTimes, have fled as soon as the thing broke loose. Some marines were injured and also some civilians.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fbones24
The action may or may not have been provoked - in my view, that is not the point.
The japanese are frightened, of course. But I thought that their trigger fingers had been cut off after the post-war treaty in 1945... They have a self defense army that, most certainly, they will willingly use if they are, indeed, attacked. They have been threatened in the past... Mind you, I know that the japanese are tough as nails. History told us that in the 1940's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
Indeed it is true that the americans are the only ones with the firepower to deal with this. But firepower isn't everything. Look at Iraq: enormous firepower - 7 years of war... And the only reason why the operation in Iraq was possible was the fact that there were no weapons of mass destruction. Even if there were, there was the certainty that Hussein was unwilling to use them. However, the lunatic in North Korea has these weapons and is bound to use them if he is given a pretext. So... MacArthur's strategy all over again? Nuke the hell out of them? I don't think so... And if that might be a possibility, the implications would be far greater than we might imagine. This is the political scenario of world war I and II and the cold war all rolled into one... And if the americans - admitedly the only ones with the firepower to flatten (literally...) North Korea - were to intervene... do you realize that it would be far more contemptable than Bush's intervention in Iraq? And Obama as voted, not long ago, in the UN security council, with the backing of Russia, a directive to finish off nuclear weapons.
But here we are: Saddam was said to have nukes. The US went in and found out (as if they didn't know already...) that there were no nukes. And all this time, a little lunatic midget hopping around, grasping a nuclear bomb shouting "Rook at me! Rook at me! I have a nucrear bomb!" Nobody did, does or will do anything... It is, in the end, not wise. He does have a bomb.
Ever since the end of the second world wa we've been predicting the third world war. The Korean war was to be it; then came other conflicts in south-east asia; and the middle east and its succession of small wars and conflicts; then the first gulf war; and then the balkans; and then came 9/11 - which was bloody scary... - and then the north koreans sink a south korean navy ship with a torpedo. In the olden days, that would have suficed to start another world war... at this rate it would have been the 7th or something. Nothing happened... some nasty words and letters, some sanctions in the UN and a couple of shots fired. And now this...Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
However, this has a certain magnitude. There was artilery fire - a classic... But what now? South Korea scrambles jets, they fly arround and go back home feeling... well... rather shitty I presume. This is dangerous business and it could escalate.
The fact of the matter is: the world's strategy towards North Korea is working... ignore them until the do cross the line. And when they do, whack'em! The line being, of course, the 38th parallel. The north koreans are isolated. They are subjugated and starving... the army may work and be a frightfull force. And they may have the bomb. But the lunatic is on its last legs. He has designated his youngest son as his successor. Who may well be as lunatic as his daddy. But he has studied in Switzerland - he knows the west and he may be able to a) open the regime when the wacky bloke goes, b) be unable to prevent the crumbling of the regime as soon as the nutter goes or c) be even nuttier than his nutty dad and cross the line - thus provoking the crumbling of the regime through the intervention of military action.
The north koreans are starving and even an effective propaganda cannot keep a stomach full for long - they will, eventualy, understand the reason why they are hungry. The west just has to keep from paying any attention to them and the south koreans have to be prepared, yes - just in case... But this is all but a skirmish.
However, the west must not opt for a policy of apeasement - remember Neville Chamberlain waving the little sheet of paper?... Sad moment, indeed. He was keen of peace but war was bound to break out.
It may be argued that the coo-coo in north korean and the austrian painter have nothing to with each other. For starters, the painter had a mustache. The coo-coo in the clock doesn't... and that's about it. Both are loonies that have power and the will to strike. Both have Lebensraum issues.
Historians say that if during the phoney war the french and british forces attacked germany all could have ended before Christmas 1940. They didn't strike. Why not, following this idea, strike north korea now?
Because that would, indeed, cause a massacre that would show that 56 million people killed in 1939 - 1945 have died in vain and their sacrifices were useless. And a strike on the looney bin would have to be very strong, quick and effective... and then, expect the worse.
So... tricky, all this.
In my view, this will be defused again and again because it is in everybody's interest to keep defusing these "bombs" (pun intended). But even while ignoring the nutty war-monger, there has to be some muscle flexing - discreet, but effective.
Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are probably already on a plane headed there.
Let's hope and pray this does not get out of hand. If it continues, I fear that both Koreas and other warm spots on the planet are going to get hot real soon and all control will be lost.
Timeo Magnopere!
Japan DOES have an army, it's called the United States Military. This is what makes the situation scary to me - the potential to ignite a conflict, not the likelihood of one. The US would be drawn in to defend S Korea and/or Japan, while China, or worse, Russia, could very well throw its support behind N Korea. I'm sure the Iranians would like to get in on that action as well, as they've wanted the bomb forever, and to openly disengage from the non-proliferation talks would give them an excuse to create a bomb out in the open - just like N Korea did. A sensitive issue that usually takes political finesse to smooth over, and only then serves as a stopgap unitl the next flare-up.
Let's hope this all blows over, and the Koreas return to their status quo.
I have faith in the dynamic duo of Clinton/Carter :)...
While NK may have a wokring nuke, it will be a Uranium impact design. And even those are hard to get right (as judged by the failure of their first nuke). They are but firecrackers compared to anything that any of the superpowers may throw at them. Their nuke is a propaganda tool, and perhaps 1 additional thing they can use.
But it didn't change anything, really. They know they can never, ever launch it because it will instantly trigger nuclear retaliation. They can't sell it to terrorists because it is extremely hard to transport nuclear stuff below the radar (radiation signatures will probably be picked up) and also because the fallout is probably identifiable. I read that with analysis, scientists can determine which reactors the fuel came from. And they would get the retaliation on their heads. I would also hazard a guess that they lack the automated infrastructure of the superpowers to rapidly launch a nuke, and IIRC they have no icbm capabilities or strategic subs. So as far as I am concerned: their nuke is not much of a threat.
NK has the world's largest artillery batteries trained on Seoul, and if they start firing, that's over a million casualties. They really don't need anything more than that. I even read that their line of artillery is so long that even dropping a nuke would not be enough to prevent seoul from getting wiped off the map.
That's quite an interesting point...Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
This is just like the cold war. Or is it still the same cold war? Only with slightly different things that crept up into the cold buffet of international diplomacy...
Why do you think Russia might back up the North Koreans? And why do you think that Russia backing up the North Koreans might be worse than having China - the world's most populous nation and the the second largest economy in the world - do it?Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
Becasue China actually has something to lose by upsetting the apple cart. They own a third of US debt, and export almost all of their goods to Western countires for consumption. Their economy is so strong because of the Western consumer, so they'd probably be a little easier to work with if it came down to it. China has also openly admitted to being embarassed by North Korean actions, yet not enough to sever all ties.Quote:
Originally Posted by fpessanha
Russia is not in the same situation, and therefore has less to lose. Which, IMHO, makes them scarier to me than China.
As far as i could think of, why would Russia back up NK? Less to lose is no way a good reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
Good point... China does have a lot to loose. But it would have a lot to win, as well. Why not upset the apple cart and taking advantage of a possible victory to reshuffle the equilibrium of power to their side. They do say they are embarassed by the North Korean actions and, ndeed, Mao Tse Tung and his lunacy is long gone. Despite having been replaced by other kinds of lunacy... On the other hand, this would mean TOTAL WAR. And what would be there to rule and own after a total nuclear war. They would be rulers of a world of cinder and ashes... and so would the western powers.Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
Russia, having nothing to lose, has nothing to win. There is not longer the problem of ideology. Communism no longer exists in Russia and the USSR is lobg gone now. If there is a nation that might help put an end to this in diplomatic terms might actualy be Russia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailor
If this breaks out into war - a war of anihalation - we are all buggered now!
If we equate what each of us has to lose and what we have to win, we do have a lot more to lose... lives, homes, friends and family. This will not escalate. The international community will simply carry on and ignore the looney bin has it has done for the past 57 years.
There be dragons there.
China is trying to pull the rare earth supply plug out from
under Japan. While China holds a massive bit of the
world debt it is not clear that they are worried about loosing it
or wielding their economic club.
The economy in N. Korea is very different when compared
to S. Korea.
I do believe they will sort it out, but my Uncle fought in
the Korean war and having listened to him and my Dad
(WW2-pacific) on the rare occasions that they did talk
it was clear that we do not grock the history and emotional
politics in that part of the world. Listening to them made
the decisions regarding Viet Nam by their generation "obvious".
N. Korea has been stagnated and isolated from the world for decades
and who knows how they consider their risks.
Yep, plus the North Korean leaders always do something like this when they want something. Usually what they really want is a lot less dramatic or drastic than whatever device or incident they gin up to get attention. They have, to say the least, very strange ideas about what constitutes diplomacy. I think they have this idea that they somehow scare us into doing what they want. What they remind me of is a really bratty 3-year-old with parents who never say "no" or deliver a much-needed swat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stubear
Not to say that this isn't disturbing, but they really don't want to go to war with the South and the US. They want something else--street cred for Kim Jong Il's son, for the US to agree to one-on-one talks about their nuclear program, food/fuel/aid--some combination of those things or all of them.
I'm not suggesting Russia enter into a conflict simply because it has less to lose than China - I'm only suggesting that if Russia were to enter, they may be unpredictable, while China may be more cooperative.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailor
Don't forget that Russia helped create the People's Republic of North Korea, and even installed Kim Il-sung as the first leader of the country. They've maintained their alliance ever since, despite international pressure and UN pleading.
I'm not saying the two governments are the best of friends, either, just worth keeping an eye on. Again, I'm hoping for the best, and will be keeping an eye on the news.
S'okay, I'm used to it. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Stubear
X
Interesting analysis here: Tensions on the Korean peninsula: What you need to know - Yahoo! News
The difference is that the entire world suffered from the cold war and stood a risk of triggering WW3. A global war is still unlikely due to the nuclear deterrent of all the big players. A Korean war will be a catastrophe for the Koreans, but the rest of the world will just get on with things.Quote:
Originally Posted by fpessanha
China is currently conquering the global economy and pulling their own country from the mug by their bootstraps. they have everything to lose from a Korean conflict and nothing to win. They'll try to protect NK to some degree because of the ideological angle, but otoh they will want to keep them at a distance as well because they need the goodwill of the rest of the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by fpessanha
the Russians, otoh have no such conundrum on their hands, and would probably benefit greatly from China's misfortune. They would do anything to attract investors away from China.
It is a little concerning. We are quite close down here.
Nothing like a nutcase with nukes to spoil the party.
I heard the US, Japan and Australia are locked into talks at the moment with South Korea to come up with a solution, in consultation with China.
I hope it is, as previously, mostly bark.
Good points you have here,Quote:
Originally Posted by CDogg
Russia has not much to gain with NK, even more than 50% of its foreign trade is with the west these days. I have no exact numbers here (i'm currently at work with poor network connections). Only think i can imagine that Russia would try to gain some diplomatic points here if it manages to setlle down this situation via negotiations. I'm not trying to symphatize our eastern neighbor here, but i'm quite sure that it doesn't do anything that would risk its own interests.
However we've taken a step too far here, as the situation is already calming down there (according to news).
But it is sort of funny: all it takes is a few lunatics on the other side of the globe, and people are already preparing for the WW3.
It's going to be alright, they're your allies now. :D
YouTube - Sarah Palin "we gotta stand with our North Korean allies"
Despite the fall of the Berlin wall the cold war is not over it has simply changed tactics, for the most part it has moved from a military stalemate to an economic war. Though it may appear that NK is the last vestige of Cold War Communism and is outdated to say the least, there are a number of things to keep in mind, the truce procured in Pan Mun Jom is just a truce, the two nations are still at war, the North is always provoking the South to look tough, there is a Regime change the new boss must look tough. The NK is still a slave to both China and Russia, the NK exports slaves to both nations to pay debts. They are basically Chinas dog. Who says this is not a manipulation by China? They get to appear reasonable while at the same time they rattle their puppets sabre.
If it came to knuckles between the two, the South would kick the Norths butt, if it werent for the threat of Chinese or Russian involvement. China is now a Superpower thanks to globalization, while the US is mired in debt and without the factories it once had to support a large military, China is on the rise and it has been many years since China felt important, maybe she feels young again.
If it were me, I would re negotiate Japans status and let them build their defense forces under the American umbrella, I think this would do a lot to keep tabs on the capitalistic communists in China as well as the totalitarians in NK.
Things seem to have cooled down... there are joint South Korean and American nanouvers planned and the North Koreans seemed to have cooled down...
Was this another false alarm or will we see more stupidity in the region?
Well, SK has the US, which has more military oomph than China. SK alone could probably not beat NK alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by nun2sharp
But be that as it may, no matter who wins, NK alone has the potential to kill 1 million SKns before the real fighting starts.
A Japanese army will do nothing to reduce tensions in that area. If anything, both Koreas and China will get very suspicious and touchy.Quote:
Originally Posted by nun2sharp
NK can stomp any conventional assault, except for an American one ( because the US can outmuscle anyone). The threat of nukes and that muscle keeps NK confined. Japan does not scare NK at all. For one, they will never have the muscle of the US, and they will never have nukes.Quote:
Originally Posted by nun2sharp
Yes, and yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by fpessanha
It's a big game of chicken, with 1 million SK lives being gambled against NK self preservation.
Not so difficult....NK has a food shortage....start a war...people die....less food needed plus the chance of conquering some new territory which can provide food.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailor
Pretty simple (if insane) if you think about it.
That is a horrible picture you are painting here. Of course you might be right, but there are many factors that speak against it.Quote:
Originally Posted by LX_Emergency
One thing, imho, is almost sure. If Kim-Jong-Il (or his successor) is about take his country into full-time war, it will also mean the ending of his rule. Way or another. Sooner or later. In the end his country would be ruined and destroyed, probably occupied with western and/or Chinese troops that getting back to old regime would be impossible. Kim-Jong-Whoever knows this. He might be lunatic but who's to say he is stupid or suicidal?
Remember that it is almost impossible for us in the west to get any reliable and objective information on Absurdistan (eh i meant North Korea).
I don't think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by LX_Emergency
First of all, Kim Jong Il doesn't care about the peasants, nor is he feeding them. And the food that he is eating is going to be his, no matter what.
Second, conquering territory is out of the question. There is no way that SK is going to give up even a centimeter of land, and the US will not allow SK to faail.
It's a cat's cradle. A stalemate. The only question is whether Kim Jong Il is world-weary enough to commit national and literal suicide by doing something terribly disproportionate.
It's a high-stakes betting game, and nobody should move. Insane leaders complicate that.
Oh I never said he cared. But hungry (and dying) people cause problems.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
And I never said he could actually conquer anything.....he might think so though.