Do you think the West is seeing its "inevitable" decline?
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Do you think the West is seeing its "inevitable" decline?
I went with 'other'. I've seen this before, more than once. The west was said to be in decline in the '70s and in the late '80s early '90s. During the Reagan years things picked up substantially after a slow start. Same with the Clinton years. There are so many variables world wide that appearances taken in the moment can be deceiving. So it looks like it but as Casey Stengal, or maybe it was Yogi Berra said, "Predictions are hard, especially the future."
An editor of The Economist has written a "special" report, huh? I look forward to reading the next time I buy a volume of The Economist. Oh, and let's not forget the "Big Time" historian in the article. No "little time" historians for us, thanks very much! But oh, wait....is that a book I see being flogged at the end of the article? Surely not!!
I think the better question with regards these two sources of "information" is "How well does peddling fear and uncertainty sell books and "reports" about "then end" of our way of life?" And the answer seems to be "pretty well, thanks. Now shut up while we count our money." :)
But to answer the question, I suspect we are seeing how Capitalism might fail. Whether that means the "West" will decline as a result, to me is a matter for conjecture, as I think it will depend on whether societies are willing to adapt and change - so far it doesn't look good in that department: human beings have a tendency to become more conservative in tough times and cling to what they have.
Just one last point - the final choice in the poll speaks volumes to me. All I'd like to say is that there are better and more reliable sources of information on many things than the Media. The Media is political and rife with financial and other conflicts of interest as a general rule. Moreover, nowadays it seems to be less news, more editorialising. Less facts, more pundits telling us what they "reckon" about pretty much anything, regardless of their actual area of expertise. The Media chase ratings (read money), which takes me back to my initial point in this post: fear and uncertainty shift units.
Here endeth my rant... :rant:
James.
earcutter:
Talk about a loaded question! It's analysis time:
1. Define "the West." West what? West of what?
2. Define "decline." Geologically? Tectonically? Hockey-ically?
The world's ending in December anyway, so I suppose I should vote "Idunnoknow."
Here in the US I know that things are getting stranger and stranger. I know that socially and economically it is worse for me and the people that I know. Politically the country is becoming more and more divided. With politicians only feeding the division. Future bleak.
I told myself I wouldn't pipe up... just wait and see how it goes I said lol. But I do want to bring up one point that JHAD brought up in that we have been worrying about this for a long time...
That's true! But in the past the "West" was threatened by different economic systems that in retrospect one can say were doomed to fail. Today’s world looks very different, in that those "threatening" the West have adopted and embraced our way of thinking and are working hard to win via "our rules."
I know it might be hard to believe, but China is working VERY hard to create an economic system based off of the West’s. And to date have met with some success.
Ok - just wanted to add that.
And yes James - the last choice is telling : )
Don't get me started on Hockey!! Those Russians... : ) With respect to # 2 - Economically.Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
OH, puh-LEASE! I'd LOVE to hear the highly-experienced and nigh-omnipotent opinion of a Kansas hockey player -- wait, isn't that an oxymoron? :rofl2:Quote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
All that seems so clear... may not be as clear as you would think brother lol!!Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
Heck - at one point and time - going by your handle, I might have rooted for you! Maybe : )
Economically, yes, the West is currently in decline. However, that falls within the parameters of the "normal" economic fluctuations I learned about in college. There are peaks, and there are valleys. Boom and bust. Bear and bull (but no Colt .45 commercials, please!).
With that in mind, one must consider the impact of goveurnmental interference on economic systems. Adam Smith wrote that the economic format which functions best is one in which goveurnment interferes least. I don't know if his opinion is in fact correct, and as far as I'm concerned, neither does anyone else. However, Socialist policies (U.K., France, Canada, etc.) seem to limit economic expansion. The U.S.A.'s policies of "adjusting for inflation" and apparent (over)regulation may well hamper economic development. I don't know. This is not to say that those policies do not address legitimate concerns. Laissez-faire just does not appear to be in ANY goveurnment's self-interest. Perhaps there is a fear of needing another bailout from a contemporary J.P. Morgan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
If you ever chanted "GOLF LEAFS GOLF!" in March I probably heard you.
earcutter:
Are you doing this poll for a class?
In the early '70s I remember an ironworker down the union hall, who had been a professional mercenary, saying that Rhodesia would never give up apartheid. Hitler thought the third reich was going to reign for a thousand years and in the 1930's it looked pretty bleak for the rest of the world. If you are old enough to remember the fall of the soviet union you'll know how incomprehensible that was to those of us raised during the post WWII years. I remember when Khrushchev said of the West, "We will bury you." If the end of the world was going to come it was probably going to be by nuclear warheads between us and them. Who would have thought that the USSR would be no more and we would be in hock up to our eyebrows to their biggest rival, a Communist country that allows slave labor ?
In the USA there have been economic upheavals a few decades apart over the course of our nations history. The tech boom of the '90s was one of the longest runs of prosperity of my lifetime. If you really look at it, the so called American "middle class" is a phenomenon that only existed for a twenty to thirty year period in the mid twentieth century. The early years of the industrial revolution were no picnic. We've had tougher times in the past and I wouldn't count us out yet. We are a resilient people who have bounced back before and believe we will again. My long winded point is that there are a lot of variables and unknowns. We have the ancient Chinese curse, we live in 'interesting times.'
JimmyHAD;
You made some excellent points, especially about the middle class. My father has been saying that for 40 years.
Well I have posted this on FB lol:Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
Randy Carlyle drawing up plays fot the Leafs in April.
Attachment 100016
earcutter:
Cute. He was a fine player, but not much of a human being (re: 1980s rape accusation). I wouldn't want to play for him.
Waiting for an answer to this :popcorn:Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
No, not this time - it's always debated though. With so many countries starting to place vast amounts of Chinese currency in their baskets though... Well, it kind of has me a bit concerned.Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
Why? It seems a fair question.Quote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ature11018.pdfQuote:
Looking towards the year 2100, models forecast that pressures on biota
will continue to increase. The co-opting of resources and energy use by
humans will continue to increase as the global population reaches
9,500,000,000 people (by 2050), and effects will be greatly exacerbated if
per capita resource use also increases. Projections for 2100 range from a
population low of 6,200,000,000 (requiring a substantial decline in
fertility rates) to 10,100,000,000 (requiring continued decline of fertility
in countries that still have fertility above replacement level) to
27,000,000,000 (if fertility remains at 2005–2010 levels; this population size
is not thought to be supportable; ref. 31). Rapid climate change shows no
signs of slowing. Modelling suggests that for ,30% of Earth, the speed at
which plant species will have to migrate to keep pace with projected
climate change is greater than their dispersal rate when Earth last shifted
froma glacial to an interglacial climate47, and that dispersalwill be thwarted
by highly fragmented landscapes. Climates found at present on 10–48%
of the planet are projected to disappear within a century, and climates
that contemporary organisms have never experienced are likely to cover
12–39% of Earth48. The mean global temperature by 2070 (or possibly a
few decades earlier) will be higher than it has been since the human
species evolved.
Personally, I'm more worried about global apocalypse than the decline of the West.
It's an awesome question - one that will affect just about every human on Earth. But it's hard to get to the truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
xuz:
Where I live the morons who post comments to the local on-line newspaper claim global warming is a myth. Have any of those around you?
earcutter:
"Truth" belongs in a philosophy class. I'm much more interested in "fact" (science). "Truth" is entirely dependent upon perspective -- point of view. "Fact" is objective, definable, replicable and measurable. :soapbox:
If China and or the Brick countries learn to consume like us in the West, we will indeed need to worry about the health of the planet. But as it stands... this is something we seemingly don't wish to face! We talk...Quote:
Originally Posted by xuz
Ah but then Malthus was wrong?? We aren’t starving yet.
My bad - facts! Hey when we start sailing the N/W passage - then you can tell/sell me on global warming! Until then, I think you... Wait! They are sailing the passage! LOL>Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
Man, am I the only one who is bothered by that hideous switching between wide and medium close-up? You'd think with the money they charge for the magazine they can afford a little bit better... Unless they paid extra because unsettling the viewers triggers a specific response facilitating the flow of capital ...Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbo
it killed me too lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by gugi
Yeah, that's where the F/V Time Bandit found the mermaids...:OTQuote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
It's hard to predict things like this because something can appear on the horizon and change everything. Based on what I see worldwide I think the west is faced with huge challenges and we put ourselves in that position, it didn't just happen. Right now in this country society is in big trouble and the economy is terrible with no answers to either.
If our society goes the way of the Dodo bird we will have ourselves to blame.
What's difficult for me is that my Adult life and the '60's started together. Being in College during that Decade gave you a feeling that it was possible for Things to change, that all people could truly learn to live together, and that life could be truly something to savoy and enjoys. Some how in the next 50yrs we were able to turn all those thoughts to shit.
Boy did we screw it up.
"This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius/Let the Sun Shine..."Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnus
Here in Australia, at the moment things are pretty good with a mining boom that has been and will keep going for some years. We have a labour federal govt, (socialist) which are doing there best to bugger it up with lots of help from the greens. We have let our manufacturing go to hell in a hand basket, and once we have eventually run out of stuff to mine and are living on a slag heap I am not sure where the next generation will be. we have enough mineral resourses to last some hundreds of years, but still. We are very much tied in with China, and later India, and there seems to be talk of major conflict in about 50 to 80 years between the two remaining hegemonies China and you guys. Global warming I see as a natural phenomena, whether man really has much bearing on it I don't know. I have an interest in archeology and not the rise and fall of a number of civilisations including some in meozoramerica due to rapid fluctuations in climate, sudden onset of long droughts. Greed, lust for power and self interest are alive and flourishing in both our countrys and I guess that is a fundamental law of human nature. I would be surprised to see the west collapse completely, but we may as someone said earlier peaks and troughts.
Cheers
heelerau
Considering how much more you are connected to India and China economically... It kind of surprised me that you guys allowed the large US military build-up there. I mean I know Australia has been a great ally to the US, but you really are that much closer to China/India.Quote:
Originally Posted by heelerau
Was everyone ok with the US naval build-up there?
Yea, I think the west pretty much is in decline if you mean the standard of living is dropping. Don't really know if it is just a normal phase in a cycle or more permanent. The high standard of living the west enjoyed for the past several decades or more was propped up by ever increasingly easy credit to compensated for good decent paying jobs being lost through globalization. Who knows where it is going but I am glad I am not walking into this one as a young person. Anyway, just a personal opinion and like a certain body part everyone has one. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, not much else you can do.
Bob
I reckon most people I know are ok about you blokes stationing your troops over here. You will get the lunatic left carrying on, but they are but a noisy minority, even though the greens have a lot of say in the current minority federal govt. We will be voting them out next year some time because even most of their own supporters are sick of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
If it was not for you blokes during WW2 we would have been over run buy the Japanese. I guess now the reason Indonesia and India don't have a go is because we are backed by you. It has been a good alliance for both of us, I do realise the ordinary people do not have much say in matters of High Policy in either of our countries but your people both civilian and military are always welcome over here. I have visited the US and found the feelings are very mutual.
Once again I do think it is swings and roundabouts, so long as people can get reward for effort things will come good in time, for all our apparent decadance we are all pretty, to quote another chap in this thread, resilient bunch.
Cheers
Heelerau
I'm not sure why our US's relations with the British Commonwealth is not closer than it is. (The current boarder with Canada is an example of this. ) I'm not sure if it's we causing the distancing or the BC wanting to limiting their interactions with US. It seems that language and culture would have cause closer social and economic ties.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnus
Well, in Canada's case the US is still our biggest trading partner although that has shrunk in recent years. As far as the situation at the Canada/USA border, that is part of the security frenzy that has gripped both countries since 911. I can only speak for myself, but I think it is a juggling act to try and maintain a unique, separate and independent national identity while sharing a common language, culture and border when dealing with a massively powerful neighbour. I think both side have done pretty well in co-operating on things considering that as recently as the War of 1812 were at each others throats. We kept our independence and you got a new and better White House out of that mess. There is an old saying "good fences make good neighbours" and maybe that applies to countries too. Close is good but too close not so much.
Bob
As other folks stated, there are many kinds of declines. Economical, cultural (and i have no reason to be afraid of the decline of our ice hockey).
Surely some kind of decline in economy will come sooner or later. As in history, there will be major ups followed by major downs, and today it seems that we will end up in lower standards in living while rising powers (China, India) take their turn to rule the world.
We (the western culture) had our turn and we messed it most. Being rich and powerful culture never meant rich, civilized people capable of living together peacefully or justice for all. We could have done better. Could have done worse as well.
Anyways i do not believe in any quick changes, but rather slow decline, step by step.
I’m not afraid about quick cultural decline either. European culture has been an ongoing process for at least 3000 years. Nowadays i'm happy that some almost forgotten parts of Scandinavian culture and habits seem to rise again here. Sort of communality. Of course there will be changes but they are not to happen quickly but rather within generations.
I do not believe any major short time changes either. Things are relatively well, at least in northern Europe. Times have been better but far more worse as well. Here people remember too well what happened economic bubble about 20 years ago and nowadays most people understand that there are no shortcuts to economical happiness. Hard work is the way. Surprisingly even our major politicians seem to think so without promising moon and stars from the sky.
Now the same bubble seems to happen in southern Europe and this time we even have money to help them (at least so our politicians tell us). For how long, heaven knows.
Most people also seem to understand these days that we are not an island immune to what is happening elsewhere. What happens in a big world has effects here and that is more or less true with every single nation.
Anyways it is hard to to tell about the future as there will always be factors yet unknown affecting how the world goes.
Every now and the media and some minority politicians keep on drumming how bad we are really doing. It is their job and that is where they get their money and voters (luckily too not many this far). While being on my deployments years ago i really saw little shadows of what really happens when people stop talking and thinking and start blindly following their leaders and lower instincs. As a kid i also heard enough stories from a family members that had fought and seen the the times of civil war.
Keeping these in mind i really think we are not doing so bad.
Personally i’m not worried as long as i’m healthy. I’m old enough to be just ok with what i have. There’s no need to get more more stuff i really do not need. I have my old house, dogs and old wife (luckily she doesn’t understand English a word).
I only wish my kids would have the change to feel the same, in time.
