Don’t expect reform from China’s new leaders - The Washington Post
Seems the story is that the new leadership is a swing back towards the Hardline old party leadership...
So what do you guys think ???
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Don’t expect reform from China’s new leaders - The Washington Post
Seems the story is that the new leadership is a swing back towards the Hardline old party leadership...
So what do you guys think ???
Yes, I'm afraid change won't come quite as quick or quite as notable as many would have hoped.
With just two regarded as reform-friendly to any extent, The other five will pretty much uphold Status quo or worse.
Sad really, China had a great opportunity this time to really take steps towards a more open and democratic society...
While not the outcome on a social level most in the west would have liked to see, not much will change. Western companies will still do ever increasing business in China because after all profit is what matters most. Pretty much status quo in that respect. More worrisome is how she may deal with international matters and disputes in the future. Time will tell.
Bob
The chinese populace (the majority of them) have become so westernized they would not stand for an attempted return to the old ways.
You would see a major civil war.
Order that extra PHIG now . :shrug:
Money and prosperity will win out in the end.
James.
Here in the USA we owe them so much money they won't mess with us. Besides, if they went to war with us we'd run out of equipment and supplies fast. It's all made in China. :gaah:
Yea, nothing like a "Mexican standoff".
Bob
More like a Chinese fire drill if we get caught w/ our pants down. :pQuote:
Originally Posted by BobH
The thing about China is that they think long term. We tend to think short term, and change has to happen tomorrow or we're not happy.
Change will happen in China, but it will happen very gradually. For example, when hongkong was transferred back to China, the Chinese happily agreed to the proposed laws, leaving the kapitalistic way of life there intact for another 50 years. 50 years is nothing to China. It is also why China is happily shoring up the US national debt. They're already thinking of collecting their debt while for the US this is so far away that noone is really thinking about it.
In the meantime, it sucks to be a chinese resident if you are not one of the movers and shakers. Civil rights don't exist there and the nail that sticks out get hammered down. Recently there was a case where someone whose land was seized for some project or other, and he didn't agree. In the end, the steam roller just rolled over him and the work continued. That is quite literally how China works.
I remember seeing an interview with a shifty CEO from a huge Philips plant in China, and when asked about the human rights issues, he just avoided the question. Between the lines, he indicated that as long as you hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil, the Chinese government gives foreign companies everything they want, and then some.
Plus there are more Chinese than the US has bullets :)Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyHAD
Well, not quite, but the Chinese don't care about human losses.
I agree, reforms are bound to happen eventually, although that will not be on the west's timetable. The Chinese leadership knows fully well that stability is more important than prosperity and that has and will continue to limit the rate of changes.
My bet is that nothing dramatic will happen overnight, but over the long term more regular chinese people will move towards improved economic standard of living, and with that they will ask for more political concessions from the ruling elite. In another generation or two there may be competitive political parties.
One place to look for the timescales of sociological changes is Russia and Eastern Europe - even if you put a new political system in place overnight, the society remains largely the same.
Edit: BTW that article in Washington Post is the typical superficial fare for poorly informed readers. From the main stream sources I think the Economist has done the best job of keeping their readers informed with what's going on in China.
This is an important consideration. With a billion and a half citizens, you just can't risk upheaval because the end result will be worse for everyone. In fact, this is what went wrong in Russia. When Gorbachev threw in the towel, everything collapsed. There was no stable transition to another structure. They experienced a period of anarchy and pure capitalism, and life for the average Joseph just fell to pieces. This is why vladimir Putin is still extremely popular. He may be an elected tyrant, but he is a strong leader and has brought back some form of order.Quote:
Originally Posted by gugi
And it is also true that forcing political change just doesn't work. It didn't work in Eastern Europe, if doesn't work in Africa, it is still touch and go in Iraq, and it is failing in Afghanistan. You can't just change a culture overnight. If the population isn't ready for it, it just doesn't work. The idea of democracy in places like Africa or western style freedom of speech in China just does not work. At least, not short term. Not until their society is ready to embrace it.
Unlike the USA China doesn't have two opposing parties with a totally different moral compass. Their leader doesn't have to take the 'bully pulpit' to try to get support for his agenda. No debate, no compromise. I remember the idiot USA talking heads saying that the student revolt circa 1989 in Tianamen Square was going to be akin to the French Revolution of 1789. I don't have a degree in anything much less journalism but I knew that was hogwash. Then the tanks began rolling over students.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
I vaguely recall western governments trying to lecture China over Tiananmen Square and being told to basically shut the front door if they wanted to do business in China. The human rights thing did not take long to died down after that. It is still raised from time to time more for western domestic consumption that anything else. Justified by the go lightly approach and they will come around when they become capitalists allowing business as usual. Looks like it is working out.
Bob
Not that I am a fan of the Castro regime, because I am not. But the fact that we won't normalize trade with Cuba because they are a communist country but we'll do biz with China, Viet Nam ...... talk about hypocrisy.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobH
Jim.read the communistic societys of the united states,The mennonites,Quakers,Mormons,are all communists,is alot of good in communism.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyHAD
Pixel,
Are you hittin that Egg Nog early?
Attachment 112400
Nope.just sayin,read the book,true communism,pure communism,is a wonderfull thing,JMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hirlau
It is also completely imaginary, and against human nature IMO. On the other hand, same can be said about Ayn Rand's philosophy by the way.Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelfixed
Todays human nature,in todays society no longer exsists as was orig intended.
I disagree. If you ask me, there never was an original intention. Our trump card seems to have been our flexible adaptability from the start, although you could say that we are best adapted to a hunter-gatherer existence (that was the 'general state' we were in the longest). That is no glamorous society though. Hunter-gatherer societies often wage brutal warfare against each other, and an average person does not live very long.Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelfixed
Well, if you pull the covers back far enough you might find that American companies are doing business in Cuba through the back door. Plenty of western countries do business with Cuba and it is not too much of a stretch of the imagination that things are done through third parties. Again not normalizing trade with Cuba could be mostly for domestic consumption. This may or may not be the case but life has taught me to be a cynic and a lot of things are just smoke and mirrors.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyHAD
Bob
My thoughts:
So Bruno mentioned that China thinks long-term where the "West" doesn't. You know what - I'll agree. Moreover, right now I would say there might actually be a kind of quiet understanding amongst Chinese that they are going to dominate.
But China is changing rapidly. And I honestly don't know how long the mindset will last. Moreover, I don't know if the externalities of a nation with so many people moving into the first world is going to allow the "normal" progression we have seen in the past. The shear amount of pollution created may and hopefully will, create new ways of thinking.
Never mind the issue of so many of its male citizens who will need to find females in other nations if they intend to procreate. The difference in genders is and will be even more staggering in the future than it is now. It's going to force Chinese to "branch out."
That's all to say that with respect to government, I think that right now - this time around, sure maybe the old status quo will work - but I highly doubt it will work next go. Just saying.
As for China allowing US firms the right to do as they wish if they look the other way with respect to human rights - that's not completely true. As an example (and something I know will kill Glen and his views on tariffs lol), if GM want's to make a car in China fine. The company is not allowed to import them. Moreover, GM has to build the plant, share the R&D AND give a % of the plant to the government. It's lop-sided and the reason they are getting all our technology. We are giving it to them! But I guess we have to - what a market! We want in! It's going to suck when the Chinese finally learn enough and don't need us anymore...
The foreign companies get zero dollar leases, cheap workforce, zero regulations,... China even goes so far as to build complete highways for free. Everything to draw in the companies. The stories I've heard when colleagues of mine helped Philips and LG move their setup to China are unbelievable. Sure, they'll take as well, but they'll not hinder you as long as you avoid politics.Quote:
Originally Posted by earcutter
And as I said, they think in decades and centuries, while wescompanies only look to the next quarter.
The same is true for students. My brother teaches computer science at Belgium's most prestigious university. He has many Chinese students who barely speak English, yet they're there to try to graduate. China sends students all over the world in large quantities in order to get educated, and then go back to China. It usually sucks for the students, because the pressure and stress levels are enormous. But they know that it is their shot at success, and China doesn't care about suicide numbers or ruined lives. If they fail, there're more where they came from.
Oh I see what you are saying - ok. Yeah, and it's spooky isn't it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
The University I go to has a program with China and some University's out there as well. Our student's go out there every semester and they say the same thing. I have never gone. But the stories are kind of spooky really.
Kind of makes you wonder about free trade agreements as they usually have clauses about countries unfairly subsidizing industries. You would think zero dollar leases would be a big no no. The softwood lumber dispute between Canada and the US is a prime example. Free trade only works on a level playing field and so far it has only been an up hill battle that the west has lost. To compete with what China has to offer business you would have to have a lifestyle like they do. Anyone up for that? I didn't think so.
Bob
To be fair, all countries do this to some degree.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobH
Airbus and boeing constantly complain about the other company getting unfair advantages.
Boeing gets zero percent interest loans, to be repaid at undefined times. Airbus gets subsidizing.
The Chinese abide more or less by the free trade rules when they need to. For the rest, they give companies as much rope as they want to hang themselves. It's not even the fault of the Chinese imo. If shareholders wanted it differently, they shouldn't put greedy scumbags at the helm of large enterprises with their eyes fized solely at the end of the fiscal quarter.
Shareholders are shooting themselves in the foot en masse. The Chinese are just happy to supply bullets, but the shareholders are the ones shooting.
Well, Bruno I am going to have to agree with you. Welcome to the new virulent form of capitalism we have today, glasses to correct for short sightedness not supplied. Sooner or later the house of cards will collapse.
Bob
There's nothing new about it. The only difference between now and any other time is that there are places open to do business that never were before, and some other places where doing business is no longer a good idea (like venezuela or some places in africa).Quote:
Originally Posted by BobH
Granted there has always been business conducted in other countries but in the past the advantages of doing so were not so great as recently. There was more protection for indigenous industries in the form of tariffs and other punitive measures that made off shoring en mass a lot less attractive than today. A free trade global economy changed all that. China has very smartly taken advantage of this. None of this happened overnight but over a course of at least the last 20 years so nobody paid any attention till the next to last horse left the barn. Where do you keep getting the money to consume goods if a huge chunk of good paying jobs are gone.
Bob
You let the currency weaken naturally. Apparently, that's a politically bad thing to do in the short term.
But it sure would help competitiveness internally if that was allowed to happen.
Dave
I think it is a complex problem but if we in the west were to live like the average Chinese and work under the conditions they do, we would have no problem being competitive. It is just not possible to be competitive and maintain our life style under the current global economic conditions. China simply has too many advantages and is wisely ruthlessly exploiting them to the fullest.
Bob
This is what I meant when I said they ( entrepreneurial capitalists) killed the goose that laid the golden egg. (the USA worker). The saddest part is the younger generation doesn't even have a clue of what happened. They think that having two or three low paying jobs per day is the norm, rather than one with a decent wage. How could they know? You have to be 60 or older to remember how it was.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobH
The USA worker couldn't compete with the Mexican or Chinese workers. Rather than bring their standard of living to a parity with ours they've headed toward bringing ours down to theirs.
Ah well, Jimmy at least the younger generation is better educated with more college/university degrees than any previous generation. That sure to come in handy when working at those two or three subsistence jobs. :gaah:
Bob
Perhaps the following statement is simplistic, but the way I see it there are only 2 options left available for the youth of today to get enough money legally upon which to live:
1. Inherit it.
2. Marry it.
I truly wish I had the answers...
I married up :).Quote:
Originally Posted by mapleleafalumnus
have nt read all the tread so if this has been touched upon forgive me.
To those that say the big difference between us and them is the fact that plans are laid out years ahead and we just look to the next day . yes this is true. The big thing with XI is his stated commitment to root out corruption in the party. what makes this so important is two fold, one is that the leader even admitted to their being any corruption in the first place and second is this acknowledgement is a nod to the power of the people the GOV has no choice any longer but to publicly address the issue..
Another key point to look at is his statement about the People being important and his goal of improving life even more for the common man and doubling salaries for everyone to help increase the quality of life Ie. consumerism.
so while there will be no major shifts in power or sharing of power with any new parties its hardly a return to hard line maoisim . though they are being dicks to japan as usual.
Shayne
