Thread: Sniping

Originally Posted by IanS

Yes, but the big distinction is that there is no hard deadline. As long as someone is willing to keep raising the bid by the minimum increment, the bidding goes on. Sniping doesn't exist in a situation where everyone see's your bid and then gets to decide if they will go higher.

Well ebay is not like that, so if you want to play by some other rules and not the rules of ebay then you'll be at disadvantage. Your choice, really.

Even in live auctions there is a deadline, typically nobody will give you 2 weeks consideration whether you'd like to pay a bit more. At some point of time there are no more bids accepted and the item has new owner. Ebay tells you ahead of time when that will happen, some online auctions do it 5 minutes after the last bid, in live auctions it's up to the subjective determination of the person who is conducting the auction...

Personally, I place a bid when I want to get that item for the amount of the bid, or less. So (1) if there is a strategy that increases chances of accomplishing the goal, I would use it (2) if something can allow my commitment to change if I change my mind, I would use that too.
(3) everybody else can do as they please, my only concern with what they do is to the extent that it could affect my strategy due to the previous two points.

I really do not understand why people insist on bidding on items that have more than a minute left. All it does is drive up prices.

I always snipe now, mostly because the internet has a power that means if I look at something with a half hour left, 45 mins later I will look at the time and curse.

Originally Posted by gugi

Actually that is not subjective, Jimbo isn't the only statistician and the data backs up Bruno's theory and is inconsistent with yours.

You cannot infer anything from this statement. You have to compare against wins with the exact same strategy for determining your bid and only varying the time when you place it. And don't forget the comparison of the auctions you lose as well.

I am not trying to infer anything, nor am I claiming an ownership, systematic exercise or superiority of a specific theory. I am putting forth some personal experience, buy it or leave it.

Show us some statistical data if you want to really impress.

Originally Posted by gregs656

I really do not understand why people insist on bidding on items that have more than a minute left. All it does is drive up prices.

I always snipe now, mostly because the internet has a power that means if I look at something with a half hour left, 45 mins later I will look at the time and curse.

I have everything on watchlist and when counts down to 5 minutes that's when I spend time. I actually lost a couple for first time because I didn't really care nor deem it worthy from pricing standpoint:

Either this guy had scheduled a sniping or was doing same thing I was down to last few seconds ( note how his done with 5 seconds on the clock! )

eBay.com Item Bid History

Another by few seconds
eBay.com Item Bid History

I wasn't really thrilled how a few of this seller's items took well over month yet the shipping price is $13.50. I got two packages from Japan in 4 days. So I didn't bid higher than I wanted to. FWIW, recent one was within week.

I pretty much snipe, the only time (except when I'm testing my sniping program) that I bid early is if I ask the seller a question, they respond, and I want the item. Seems rude to me to snipe in that situation, for some reason. I still don't enter my mix bid at that time, though.

Originally Posted by sparq

I am not trying to infer anything, nor am I claiming an ownership, systematic exercise or superiority of a specific theory. I am putting forth some personal experience, buy it or leave it.

Show us some statistical data if you want to really impress.

as I said you cannot infer anything about snipping from what you posted.
i really don't care if i impress you or not, i want to know what works better.
here's a paper on the subject Cookies Required

not sure if it's too technical for you, if it is there are others in popular science magazines aimed more towards general public, but they are not as rigorous.

let me know if you want to know what's the densest way to pack m&m's or why a spaghetto breaks in two places when you bend it, i can get you links for those too.

Edit: I am not sure if you'll get access to the paper through the link above, as it often costs money (I have access through a subscription). The article in question is: I. Yang and B. Kahng, "Bidding process in online auctions and winning strategy: Rate equation approach", PHYSICAL REVIEW E 73, 067101, 2006

Gugi the abstract from that citation does show up and captures the interpretation of the study. I agree with what the authors say the study suggests. Any bids made earlier than the last few seconds GENERALLY only serves to raise the final price. For Ebay/PayPal and the seller that's highly desired. For a buyer it's undesirable. The lesson is to either snipe or bid in the last few seconds. Alternatives are to bid early but VERY high, or to be the only one willing to bid an item above some level - both approaches ensuring a higher end price.

But in reality it's all a crap shoot. People normally seem to bid emotionally so no amount of logic can predict the outcome of a bid strategy with any real accuracy. I've started to use snipes and seem to win about 50% more but that could be for any number of reasons. What I DO know is that every bid I place earlier than the last few minutes only serve to raise the final price regardless of who wins.

I usually put my bid in during the last 10 seconds . I bid what I think the razor is worth , to me . Sometimes I win , and sometimes I don't , but I never pay too much .