The Ukraine situation

Reading the latest from the BBC it looks as though you are correct Bruno, the EU is not onboard for Economic Sanctions... I don't think anyone including the US is all that anxious to get into a shooting war... Although our Politicians seem to be talking a good game of Economic Retaliation, if the EU isn't going to play there isn't much the US can do...


Not so funny fact now...

One of the cuts to the USAF they proposed last week... The A-10, reason given last week, "The A-10 has outlived it usefulness as it's only true mission was to destroy Russian tanks during the Cold War and we just don't see that scenario as being realistic any longer"

:hmmm: Might want re-think that one guys

You can just look a couple of years back when Russia stopped the gas flow through Ukraine. It wasn't pretty and finding resolution didn't take too long.
It's nothing new - EU's policy for some time has been diversification and decreasing the dependence on Russia, but it's pretty much like the much talked about US independence on foreign oil.

At the end of the day Russia will get what it wants, retaining its influence over Ukraine, just because there is no alternative. They most certainly don't need the saber-rattling to achieve this. The military posturing is Putin showing everybody he's got a big... eh... stick. Just like his NYT oped over Syria few months ago.

Splitting a country is national treason, so I can't see it happening, not in Ukraine, not in USA. The last time it happened was after prolonged genocide in Sudan - before that in Kosovo with a fairly compacted and ethnically different population and most importantly after ethnic cleansing.

Personally, I can't see the West wanting to go to war over what may happen in the Ukraine. So far you have the prerequisite pious gnashing of teeth and hand wringing with a bit of sabre rattling from the West as opposed to Russia's prompt use of a real sabre in the Crimea.

The best case out come that I can see happening is that Russia keeps control of the Crimea and lets the rest of the Ukraine sort itself out either peacefully or through civil war. The worst case out come that I can see is that we all get dragged into a war because of NATO treaty obligations through former Warsaw Pact Pact countries now included in NATO.

Then there is anything in between. No matter what there is more than enough to be concerned about especially if events take on a life of their own and nobody has control of them.

Bob

The interim government got thrown a hospital ball by the previous one no doubt! They darted forward for the catch, only to be clobbered by Russia.

There are many keen spectators among the many smaller nations that will always need a big brother. To me the U.S. looses credibility by even talking if they aren't going to actually do something, but the E.U. is the big fraud. Having fanned the flames and held out the carrot they have neither the money nor the military will to endorse their involvement in the Ukraine.

The modern armies are so powerful no one dares pit them against a similar foe, instead the fighting continues as it always has, with balaclavas and small arms..

Haven't you heard of the golden rule? "He who has the gold makes the rules"

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Originally Posted by nonick

There are many keen spectators among the many smaller nations that will always need a big brother. To me the U.S. looses credibility by even talking if they aren't going to actually do something, but the E.U. is the big fraud. Having fanned the flames and held out the carrot they have neither the money nor the military will to endorse their involvement in the Ukraine.

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that has never been the intention either. The EU is perfectly willing to deal with the Ukaraine, if the Ukraine wants to. The EU however has NO desire to get military involvement in what is slowly turning out to be a civil war. What should we do? Invade Ukraine to make sure that our favorites win? Ukraine is also not a NATO member so they don't get the military protection that would be owed them if they were.

If the EU would involve themselves at the benefit of the pro EU government that is holding a tenuous grip to power, the other half of the Ukarain would start to fight. And the current government isn't even a legitimate one so even a request for help would be a request made by a rebel faction.

Unless the Ukrainian people figure out for themselves which way they want to lean, foreign military joining in the fight will only make a bad problem much worse.

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Originally Posted by nonick

To me the U.S. looses credibility by even talking if they aren't going to actually do something, but the E.U. is the big fraud. Having fanned the flames and held out the carrot they have neither the money nor the military will to endorse their involvement in the Ukraine.

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You have to remember that Ukraine had the 'orange revolution' a decade ago. And the recently deposed Yanukovich was democratically elected, as a result of the corruption of the previous governments. Yes, he is corrupt, but so was Timoshenko who made a big fortune from the Russian gas flow.

In my view the democratic world should stand for democratic values and offer limited support, but it is not their job to resolve other countries' internal problems. It is ultimately up to the ukrainian and the russian people to replace their totalitarian and autocratic institutions with democratic ones.

There is plenty of stuff that EU/US can do if Putin decides to invade Ukraine - put radars and missiles near the borders would be the ultimate middle finger to Putin. But there really is no political end to open invasion of Ukraine. Instability right next to the Russia's Black Sea fleet does a lot of harm and no good. The radicalization of the native to Crimea Tatar minority which is muslim and a lot of them are still living wherever they got displaced by the russians is just asking for trouble. Maintaining oppressive state gets rather expensive, and eventually it is going to backfire.
Russia has limited economic resources and the reality is that it can not afford occupation of another country. It can only afford short military operations to overthrow a government and to keep a number of small states dependent (e.g. Georgia 2008).

In the long run though the gas market is going to change from long term contracts to a true commodity market and that is when I think the political landscape will be able to change.

Kerry wouldn't know any thing about it (sat in the rear with the gear )
,, and just another place politicians send young men to die for their own personnel agends, or to get favor in their little schemes ,, I,m with the majority , stay out of other countries business, we don't like it when others tell us what to do , and besides we cant even take care of our own tc

This sounds familiar. Hmmmm Europe in the 1930s Avoid all bloodshed at all costs until you have nothing left to give. The only way to negotiate is from a position of strength, not weakness. If there is a conventional war in Europe, Europe wont last. And since everybody believes that they will not use Nukes, that eliminates their purpose as a deterrent. Its a mess. But you can only meet a threat head on. Syria use of force by a coalition was said to cause possibly 100k civilian deaths. Death count now by latest estimate is 140k and COUNTING.

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Originally Posted by bill3152

This sounds familiar. Hmmmm Europe in the 1930s Avoid all bloodshed at all costs until you have nothing left to give. The only way to negotiate is from a position of strength, not weakness. If there is a conventional war in Europe, Europe wont last.

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Uhm, you've got it completely backwards. EU has over twice the military personnel of Russia, about four times the population of Russia and over 6 times the economy of Russia. It also happens to be in the NATO alliance, which would involve US. There is absolutely no way for Russia to win a war against Europe, it's a matter of trivial math. It couldn't win a war against Afganistan.

This talking about war is just ridiculous, it is not happening. At the most Russia will stir some trouble in Ukraine, probably ensure a pro-russian government, but it will stay away from a civil war. It could split off Crimea as an independent state, in order to ensure firm grip over it, after all they gifted it to Ukraine for no good reason.

A united Europe could have avoided the second Iraq war syria crisis and this in Crimea as well as a fast victory in Afghanistan. I disagree with your assessment. JMHO we shall see how this plays out.