Thread: How bad could the U.S. economy get?

As an offshoot of a post regarding the bankruptcy of a restaurant chain in the U.S., and knowing that there have been what seems like a steady wave of "disposable income" type of businesses either dramatically hurt or shut down completely by the sagging economy, foreclosures left, right and sideways and.....given that I am NOT an economist, and wish I knew more about economics, I'm hoping others who are more knowledgeable or keep up on this area will have some input here.

I'm not looking for a finger pointing thread pitting one administration's errors against another's.

How bad could the economy get? What kind of timeline? Why? Does anyone have any projections they can share?

I don't think of myself as a doom and gloom person, but I'm ready to batten down the hatches now from what I've already seen first hand around me.

Chris L

Originally Posted by Chris L

As an offshoot of a post regarding the bankruptcy of a restaurant chain in the U.S., and knowing that there have been what seems like a steady wave of "disposable income" type of businesses either dramatically hurt or shut down completely by the sagging economy, foreclosures left, right and sideways and.....given that I am NOT an economist, and wish I knew more about economics, I'm hoping others who are more knowledgeable or keep up on this area will have some input here.

I'm not looking for a finger pointing thread pitting one administration's errors against another's.

How bad could the economy get? What kind of timeline? Why? Does anyone have any projections they can share?

I don't think of myself as a doom and gloom person, but I'm ready to batten down the hatches now from what I've already seen first hand around me.

Chris L

From what I've read in Bank warnings and other investment banker papers. They have warned about the end of September as a very bad time.

It was announced today unemployment is at a 4 year high. Tourism-related industry is down (airlines, cruise, tourist destinations, etc.). Housing is bad. GM just posted a $15.5 billion loss this quarter, but ExxonMobil set record profit as an off-set. Starbucks is closing locations. Fuel prices are still very high, but America has been enjoying cheaper gasoline than the rest of the world for a number of years. I feel sorry for folks who have to buy heating oil for their homes, because it's going to hurt the wallet this winter. Regardless of what kind of spin folks try to put on it, the economy is in the commode.

I've cut back on about everything that's discretionary spending out of my habits, with the occasional treat still.

I don't know how much further it will slide. I think there's a lot of unrest with elections coming up. The outcome may well set the tone for what happens next.

I agree things don't look good at the moment, but we should keep in mind that these things are cyclical. We've been in recessions before and I'm confident that we'll come out of this one ok. Obviously details need to be addressed, but we should also keep perspective and not panic.

Jordan

Originally Posted by jnich67

We've been in recessions before and I'm confident that we'll come out of this one ok.

I recall "recession" being a term used to describe our economy at times and IIRC even fairly recently (within the last 5 years?). However, for me at the age of 38, what seems to be different than what I've seen since I've been alive are the massive number of home foreclosures, stagnant real estate sales, bankruptcies, etc. I deal with insuring businesses commercially, and in the last decade, the number of small sole proprietorships going out of business is nothing prior to what it is now. And these are issues that I'd consider to be "local". I've also never witnessed what I feel is a deterioration of our infrastructure since I've been alive to the degree it seems to be deteriorating now. Think the bridge collapse in Minneapolis. Last week, a huge chunk of concrete fell from another highway structure in the metro area landing on a moving vehicle nearly killing the occupants.

Chris L

Remember "stagflation"??

Firstly, I think that given the traumas inflicted on the US economy are a testament to its strength, not a sign of its weakness. Had the same set of troubles been inflicted on any other economy, the fallout would have been far, far worse for that country.

Consider that scholars now believe that the Great Depression was both worsened and lengthened by many of the New Deal programs intended to provide relief from it. Consider too that prior to these programs, the federal government was far less interventionist - the New Deal marks the beginning of unprecedented federal control over the economy, money supply, and production. Since that time, the federal government has expanded exponetially.

Perhaps more importantly, most policies advocated by Barrack Obama and Congressional Democrats are anti-business, anti-growth, economy stiffling, high tax nightmares. Make no mistake, THESE ARE THE FAILED POLICIES OF THE PAST! Should the Democrats win the presidency and greater control of Congress, the damage they do could echo for decades. Should they run amok, I truely believe there is no practical end to the suffering.

Originally Posted by ProfessorChaos!

Perhaps more importantly, most policies advocated by Barrack Obama and Congressional Democrats are anti-business, anti-growth, economy stiffling, high tax nightmares. Make no mistake, THESE ARE THE FAILED POLICIES OF THE PAST! Should the Democrats win the presidency and greater control of Congress, the damage they do could echo for decades. Should they run amok, I truely believe there is no practical end to the suffering.

Boy, then we should be jumping for joy that just the opposite of these policies have been going on for the last 7 years, or we'd really be screwed up now. Maybe instead of just killing GM, the oil companies would have released plagues to kill all our wheat, too!!

I'll take the opportunity to point out that Obama's economic plans include cutting the govt's revenue by 10%-- i.e., an overall tax cut.

Maybe it will be difficult if not impossible to share information or feedback on where people think the health or lack of health of the U.S. economy could go and why without getting political. I think this is a valid post and I'm genuinely interested in learning things from those that know more than I do about the economy. I'm pleading for a civil discussion.

Thanks

Chris L

Chris,
I too wish to understand our current situation more and I also share your sentiment to keep it civil. I don't trust much of anything the government or their controlled media outlets say, and matters of the economy are no different. I think that preparing for the worst will leave you better off regardless of what ultimately happens. Any extra money I save from here on out I will be buying gold. Not gold futures or promises but actual gold. I feel that gold, in the event of a total collapse of our economy and or the world economy, will retain it's power in the market where all of the stocks, bonds, and federal reserve notes will be even more worthless that they are now. I have heard some very good, non partisan, economist's speak on some of my favorite shows on We The People Radio Network. One of then is Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, here is his wiki link Paul Craig Roberts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia but do some searching on his work. You can listen to WTPRN live on their website linked in my signature. I believe the economy should be controlled by companies, small businesses, consumers, and supply and demand NOT BY GOVERNMENTS! With that being said, partisan politics have no place in this discussion at the root level. I hope we find the information we are looking for.