Do you have a favorite Market index?

**sicboater** · 03-12-2009, 01:19 PM

Personally, I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not the best measure of the market for me. It is only rarely a leading indicator of anything and even then not too leading.

What say you informed forum member?

I'll understand if you want to keep this as a hold card.

I like to watch indexes that concern credit availability and use, raw materials, international commerce, commodities...hell...I like almost everything but the Dow.

-Rob

**majurey** · 03-12-2009, 02:14 PM

I keep an eye on FTSE 100, FTSE 250, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ. Very West-centric, so I don't doubt I'm not getting a real view of the world markets.

**crazycliff200843** · 03-16-2009, 06:42 AM

I'll start by saying that I don't know much about the stock market. I've never invested and what I know is limited to my high school economics class. But, why don't you like the Dow? I would think that a lot could be learned from it. The companies it tracks are all blue chips and they all practice business in a way that reflects some aspect of the market/economy. Don't they all deal with actual materials and products that you can put your hands on? It may not show the details of a single market, but doesn't it give a quick view on some central aspects of the market that are important?

**JimmyHAD** · 03-16-2009, 01:34 PM

I watch "completed items in ebay straight razors"

**Slartibartfast** · 03-16-2009, 01:45 PM

All i know is that the last update i got on my 401k only had this image in the envelope.

**Bladerunner** · 03-16-2009, 02:02 PM

In my opinion the Dow no longer reflects the future of investment. What amazes me is that all of the so called "experts" still rely on its value. Today is similar to the last turn of the century. Horses were replaced by mechanical devices, and fossil fuel. Barrel Makers saw a loss of market due to canning. The list goes on.

Future investments that I track are in the ares of biological technology, gene therapy, and robotics. In addition, the future of oil as an energy investment is almost moot. The argument of Peak Oil aside, check this out.

YouTube - Salt Water into Fuel

**sicboater** · 03-16-2009, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by crazycliff200843

I'll start by saying that I don't know much about the stock market. I've never invested and what I know is limited to my high school economics class. But, why don't you like the Dow? I would think that a lot could be learned from it. The companies it tracks are all blue chips and they all practice business in a way that reflects some aspect of the market/economy. Don't they all deal with actual materials and products that you can put your hands on? It may not show the details of a single market, but doesn't it give a quick view on some central aspects of the market that are important?

I don't like the DOW because it is not relevant to me. In the time that I have been analyzing patterns of productivity to anticipate market cycles, I have come to realize that the DOW is meaningless to an ever changing market place.

Simply, the DOW is representative of a select group of companies that have a good chance because of their size to have irons in a lot of different fires. The issue to me is, as an investor, I want to know when someone is starting a new fire with good fuel. The DOW doesn't help me determine that information. The DOW reacts to that information. As far as an indicator of market strength, maybe it is, but it is speculative and their are some leading indicators that aren't. If I owned a good portion of blue chip stocks, the DOW would be more relevant to me.

Hope that clarifies my position.

-Rob

**crazycliff200843** · 03-17-2009, 11:02 AM

What do you invest in, if you don't mind me asking?

Sometimes the guys on the news have some good ideas, but usually it takes some research to figure out what they are talking about. In my case, anyway. I hear most companies make it easy to get their financial reports from their websites or by asking.

What about the nasdaq or s and p? Do you have the same outlook on them as you do the dow? I hear the nasdaq is more for tech companies.

Do you think a money market fund could serve as an index?

**sicboater** · 03-17-2009, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by crazycliff200843

What do you invest in, if you don't mind me asking?

Sometimes the guys on the news have some good ideas, but usually it takes some research to figure out what they are talking about. In my case, anyway. I hear most companies make it easy to get their financial reports from their websites or by asking.If they are publicly traded, they have to make this stuff available. The balance sheet is my chosen financial statement to look at now. It use to be the income statement but that has change.

What about the nasdaq or s and p? I like them betterDo you have the same outlook on them as you do the dow? I hear the nasdaq is more for tech companies.

Do you think a money market fund could serve as an index? No, they seek to have a stable Net Asset Value. They aren't trying to beat or even make the market, rather they are trying to stay in the game by being net neutral. This means they are managed very differently than other funds.

You know...I have found that if I don't invest in things I am interested in, the investments languish. I invest in securities that reflect my interests or things I am involved in professionally. Right now, I invest in anyone with a decent balance sheet and I do think the S&P is more inline with my investment profile and I have atleast one index fund that tracks the S&P. For me, the most sound indicator right now is an index that tracks international commerce of raw materials. Currently, I am watching the index and keeping track of it against NASDAQ and the S&P. I think it is leading the two by an average of about 6 mos but am still building the model. I would say 98% of my invested money is in companies that can be found in the SPBWIV. You can check it out here:

Global Innovation Index - BusinessWeek

My weights are different than the SPBWIV (I didn't weight GM as high) but I own some of all the companies in that list.

But anyone reading this should keep in mind that I have a 30yr event horizon before retirement so my strategy might be different than theirs.

**Seraphim** · 03-17-2009, 05:30 PM

I have this market index beamed to my Blackberry every hour:

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