Thread: North Korea shelling populated South Korean Island

It would seem that as the Korean situation is coming closer and closer to a head, Japanese trigger fingers are becoming itchier and itchier.

I've long thought that a third world war would be fought in Asia before the Middle East, and I'm hoping that a forced regime change in North Korea will happen before it comes to that.

Originally Posted by CDogg

It would seem that as the Korean situation is coming closer and closer to a head, Japanese trigger fingers are becoming itchier and itchier.

I've long thought that a third world war would be fought in Asia before the Middle East, and I'm hoping that a forced regime change in North Korea will happen before it comes to that.

Meh.
I don't think so.
The Japanese can't do a thing. Their trigger fingers may itch, but other than bombing them with sushi, they can't do much. The Chinese will not want to denounce them openly, nor drop them completely. SK can write an angry letter to KJI and not much more than that. Th eonly ones in a position to really do something are the Americans. And they can't do a thing because open assault means 1 million SKns get shelled instantly by the largest artillery volley in past and future history.

Unless I am seriously wrong, there will be some bullets exchanged, a lot of angry talk and propaganda, and nothing will change. The only option I see for a military operation is to evacuate ALL SKns before launching the attack. That is hardly likely, and will cause death on a scale not seen since WW2, on both sides unless the US flattens NK with hydrogen megaton bombs.

So all in all.... same old same old until NK changes from within. That might happen in the aftermath of KJI dying, but probably not as long as there is no dissent within the military.

That regime is so regimented I cant imagine it changing much when KJI goes. I hope it does, I'm just not holding my breath!

I agree, I think theres going to be loads of sabre rattling, people "condemning X in the severest terms" and possibly a few shots exchanged but that'll probably be the end of it.

As I said before, this is a regime that claims it is developing nuclear weapons and will soon have a new leader. They're flexing their muscles and making a noise in the hope of getting a reaction that will allow them to retaliate. If they do have nukes the worst thing anyone could do is retaliate. Far better to go the diplomatic route and take the higher ground I think! They're just looking for an excuse to pop a few rockets off at SK, and have been since the '50's.

N Korea is like the family dog who has learned over the years what action to take to get what it wants and let everyone know he's around.

They do it because they know they can get away with it and no one will do anything to them. It's as simple as that.

All this is really scary... but I've grown out of believing that this might escalate. Here's why:

Originally Posted by Fbones24

I do not see how firing rockets into a civilian inhabited island is a justified response for a military exercise near the border. The South Korean military should be able to hold exercises and stay prepared. An appropriate response would have been North Korean military exercises of their own near the border.

As far as I am concerned, this still qualifies as an unprovoked attack by my estimation.

I read in the NYTimes today that the disputed island is the base of several hundreds of south korean marines. It is indeed the home of a couple of hundreds of fishermen that, according to the NYTimes, have fled as soon as the thing broke loose. Some marines were injured and also some civilians.
The action may or may not have been provoked - in my view, that is not the point.

Originally Posted by Bruno

Meh.
I don't think so.
The Japanese can't do a thing. Their trigger fingers may itch, but other than bombing them with sushi, they can't do much. The Chinese will not want to denounce them openly, nor drop them completely. SK can write an angry letter to KJI and not much more than that. Th eonly ones in a position to really do something are the Americans. And they can't do a thing because open assault means 1 million SKns get shelled instantly by the largest artillery volley in past and future history.

Unless I am seriously wrong, there will be some bullets exchanged, a lot of angry talk and propaganda, and nothing will change. The only option I see for a military operation is to evacuate ALL SKns before launching the attack. That is hardly likely, and will cause death on a scale not seen since WW2, on both sides unless the US flattens NK with hydrogen megaton bombs.

So all in all.... same old same old until NK changes from within. That might happen in the aftermath of KJI dying, but probably not as long as there is no dissent within the military.

The japanese are frightened, of course. But I thought that their trigger fingers had been cut off after the post-war treaty in 1945... They have a self defense army that, most certainly, they will willingly use if they are, indeed, attacked. They have been threatened in the past... Mind you, I know that the japanese are tough as nails. History told us that in the 1940's.

Indeed it is true that the americans are the only ones with the firepower to deal with this. But firepower isn't everything. Look at Iraq: enormous firepower - 7 years of war... And the only reason why the operation in Iraq was possible was the fact that there were no weapons of mass destruction. Even if there were, there was the certainty that Hussein was unwilling to use them. However, the lunatic in North Korea has these weapons and is bound to use them if he is given a pretext. So... MacArthur's strategy all over again? Nuke the hell out of them? I don't think so... And if that might be a possibility, the implications would be far greater than we might imagine. This is the political scenario of world war I and II and the cold war all rolled into one... And if the americans - admitedly the only ones with the firepower to flatten (literally...) North Korea - were to intervene... do you realize that it would be far more contemptable than Bush's intervention in Iraq? And Obama as voted, not long ago, in the UN security council, with the backing of Russia, a directive to finish off nuclear weapons.

But here we are: Saddam was said to have nukes. The US went in and found out (as if they didn't know already...) that there were no nukes. And all this time, a little lunatic midget hopping around, grasping a nuclear bomb shouting "Rook at me! Rook at me! I have a nucrear bomb!" Nobody did, does or will do anything... It is, in the end, not wise. He does have a bomb.

Originally Posted by CDogg

I've long thought that a third world war would be fought in Asia before the Middle East, and I'm hoping that a forced regime change in North Korea will happen before it comes to that.

Ever since the end of the second world wa we've been predicting the third world war. The Korean war was to be it; then came other conflicts in south-east asia; and the middle east and its succession of small wars and conflicts; then the first gulf war; and then the balkans; and then came 9/11 - which was bloody scary... - and then the north koreans sink a south korean navy ship with a torpedo. In the olden days, that would have suficed to start another world war... at this rate it would have been the 7th or something. Nothing happened... some nasty words and letters, some sanctions in the UN and a couple of shots fired. And now this...
However, this has a certain magnitude. There was artilery fire - a classic... But what now? South Korea scrambles jets, they fly arround and go back home feeling... well... rather shitty I presume. This is dangerous business and it could escalate.
The fact of the matter is: the world's strategy towards North Korea is working... ignore them until the do cross the line. And when they do, whack'em! The line being, of course, the 38th parallel. The north koreans are isolated. They are subjugated and starving... the army may work and be a frightfull force. And they may have the bomb. But the lunatic is on its last legs. He has designated his youngest son as his successor. Who may well be as lunatic as his daddy. But he has studied in Switzerland - he knows the west and he may be able to a) open the regime when the wacky bloke goes, b) be unable to prevent the crumbling of the regime as soon as the nutter goes or c) be even nuttier than his nutty dad and cross the line - thus provoking the crumbling of the regime through the intervention of military action.
The north koreans are starving and even an effective propaganda cannot keep a stomach full for long - they will, eventualy, understand the reason why they are hungry. The west just has to keep from paying any attention to them and the south koreans have to be prepared, yes - just in case... But this is all but a skirmish.

However, the west must not opt for a policy of apeasement - remember Neville Chamberlain waving the little sheet of paper?... Sad moment, indeed. He was keen of peace but war was bound to break out.
It may be argued that the coo-coo in north korean and the austrian painter have nothing to with each other. For starters, the painter had a mustache. The coo-coo in the clock doesn't... and that's about it. Both are loonies that have power and the will to strike. Both have Lebensraum issues.
Historians say that if during the phoney war the french and british forces attacked germany all could have ended before Christmas 1940. They didn't strike. Why not, following this idea, strike north korea now?
Because that would, indeed, cause a massacre that would show that 56 million people killed in 1939 - 1945 have died in vain and their sacrifices were useless. And a strike on the looney bin would have to be very strong, quick and effective... and then, expect the worse.

So... tricky, all this.
In my view, this will be defused again and again because it is in everybody's interest to keep defusing these "bombs" (pun intended). But even while ignoring the nutty war-monger, there has to be some muscle flexing - discreet, but effective.

Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are probably already on a plane headed there.

Let's hope and pray this does not get out of hand. If it continues, I fear that both Koreas and other warm spots on the planet are going to get hot real soon and all control will be lost.

Timeo Magnopere!

Japan DOES have an army, it's called the United States Military. This is what makes the situation scary to me - the potential to ignite a conflict, not the likelihood of one. The US would be drawn in to defend S Korea and/or Japan, while China, or worse, Russia, could very well throw its support behind N Korea. I'm sure the Iranians would like to get in on that action as well, as they've wanted the bomb forever, and to openly disengage from the non-proliferation talks would give them an excuse to create a bomb out in the open - just like N Korea did. A sensitive issue that usually takes political finesse to smooth over, and only then serves as a stopgap unitl the next flare-up.

Let's hope this all blows over, and the Koreas return to their status quo.

I have faith in the dynamic duo of Clinton/Carter ...

While NK may have a wokring nuke, it will be a Uranium impact design. And even those are hard to get right (as judged by the failure of their first nuke). They are but firecrackers compared to anything that any of the superpowers may throw at them. Their nuke is a propaganda tool, and perhaps 1 additional thing they can use.

But it didn't change anything, really. They know they can never, ever launch it because it will instantly trigger nuclear retaliation. They can't sell it to terrorists because it is extremely hard to transport nuclear stuff below the radar (radiation signatures will probably be picked up) and also because the fallout is probably identifiable. I read that with analysis, scientists can determine which reactors the fuel came from. And they would get the retaliation on their heads. I would also hazard a guess that they lack the automated infrastructure of the superpowers to rapidly launch a nuke, and IIRC they have no icbm capabilities or strategic subs. So as far as I am concerned: their nuke is not much of a threat.

NK has the world's largest artillery batteries trained on Seoul, and if they start firing, that's over a million casualties. They really don't need anything more than that. I even read that their line of artillery is so long that even dropping a nuke would not be enough to prevent seoul from getting wiped off the map.

Originally Posted by Bruno

While NK may have a wokring nuke, it will be a Uranium impact design. And even those are hard to get right (as judged by the failure of their first nuke). They are but firecrackers compared to anything that any of the superpowers may throw at them. Their nuke is a propaganda tool, and perhaps 1 additional thing they can use.

But it didn't change anything, really. They know they can never, ever launch it because it will instantly trigger nuclear retaliation. They can't sell it to terrorists because it is extremely hard to transport nuclear stuff below the radar (radiation signatures will probably be picked up) and also because the fallout is probably identifiable. I read that with analysis, scientists can determine which reactors the fuel came from. And they would get the retaliation on their heads. I would also hazard a guess that they lack the automated infrastructure of the superpowers to rapidly launch a nuke, and IIRC they have no icbm capabilities or strategic subs. So as far as I am concerned: their nuke is not much of a threat.

NK has the world's largest artillery batteries trained on Seoul, and if they start firing, that's over a million casualties. They really don't need anything more than that. I even read that their line of artillery is so long that even dropping a nuke would not be enough to prevent seoul from getting wiped off the map.

That's quite an interesting point...
This is just like the cold war. Or is it still the same cold war? Only with slightly different things that crept up into the cold buffet of international diplomacy...

Originally Posted by CDogg

Japan DOES have an army, it's called the United States Military. This is what makes the situation scary to me - the potential to ignite a conflict, not the likelihood of one. The US would be drawn in to defend S Korea and/or Japan, while China, or worse, Russia, could very well throw its support behind N Korea. I'm sure the Iranians would like to get in on that action as well, as they've wanted the bomb forever, and to openly disengage from the non-proliferation talks would give them an excuse to create a bomb out in the open - just like N Korea did. A sensitive issue that usually takes political finesse to smooth over, and only then serves as a stopgap unitl the next flare-up.

Let's hope this all blows over, and the Koreas return to their status quo.

I have faith in the dynamic duo of Clinton/Carter ...

Why do you think Russia might back up the North Koreans? And why do you think that Russia backing up the North Koreans might be worse than having China - the world's most populous nation and the the second largest economy in the world - do it?