An observation on the unemplyoment rate.

I was watching the news the other day and saw a report about the unemployment rate and businesses looking for workers. The gist of it was that there are a lot of businesses (mostly small businesses here in the Midwest according to the report) who are looking for skilled help right now but they cannot find qualified people to do the work. The type of people they need most are skilled workers who can run lathes and mills, welders, pipe fitters, sheet metal workers, etc.

Back when I was still teaching about 17,18 years ago there was a trend in education to do away with industrial arts classes in both the public schools and even some of the colleges. They were being systematically replaced with "technologies" classes. The schools argument was that by the time those kids graduated those skilled labor type of jobs would no longer exist.

To enhance the problem, many of the tech schools offering machinist training changed their curriculum from machine shop operations to CNC programing. I have a friend from church who is a "certified machinist". This friend can't run a manual lathe. To my mind, if you can't take a piece of steel and use lathes, mills, etc to make something your not really a "machinist". If all you have learned to do is program CNC your a computer programmer.

Most of the dumping of these skills by educational institutions was brought upon by gov grant programs pushing the "technologies" programs. On top of that, it is expensive to maintain and run a good HS industrial arts program.

Are there other employment ops in other fields not being filled because the education system used a cracked crystal ball?

Your thoughts?

Mike Rowe Speaks To Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee [05-11-11] - YouTube

Hopefully there aren't a lot of companies that need to institute workplace training programs blaming the education system for their problems.

The federal government has no place meddling in education. There is no Constitutional authority for it and the idea of taking taxpayer money, running through federal bureaucracies only to have it handed back to local communities with strings attached defies local and reason. At the state level, the idea that state government should FUND education is arguable, so that everyone gets access to learning. The idea that state governments should RUN the actual schools, from determining what's in textbooks to how many tater tots each student gets for lunch is insane. Get the government out of the business of education and watch results improve, costs drop, while innovation thrives as real competition begins to take hold. Or, we can just pour more money down that crapper...it's working out so very well so far???

Slartibartfast, (that's kinda hard to spell the first time)

I think Mike Rowe is dead spot on in his comments. Thank you for posting that clip. I had not seen that before.

I don't mean to start a education bashing thread here. My best friend is one of the few shop teachers left and my wife is a teacher. We value education here. But I think the ball has been dropped in this skilled labor area and I am curious to know if other vocational fields are seeing the same phenomena of having a high unemployment and a shortage of of workers qualified in those vocations.

I think this goes beyond a companies workplace training program. Skilled labor is just that "skilled" labor. When a company hires a person for a machinist position they should be able to reasonably assume that the person has a certain foundation of knowledge. Yes they should expect to train the person to make "the widget" that company needs. It is unreasonable to expect them to have to teach the person how to safely and effectively run a lathe.

I also found Mr Rowe's comments about the societal over valuing of a college education over vocational training to be interesting. Watching that made me realize that I am one of those guys. I have about seven years of higher education. I got my BA in fine art ed. and did my graduate work in sculpture. Now here I am 20+ years later running my own business realizing everything I learned in college that I actually use today I could have learned in six months. I went to college because so many people pounded the mantra " you can't get a job without a college education" into my head. It was pure hogwash.

Ray

Father Guido Sarducci's Five Minute University - YouTube

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nun2sharp

Father Guido Sarducci's Five Minute University - YouTube

---

That was hilarious! Been a long time since I've seen that character.

Ray

My old high school no longer has any industrial arts classes. The only two I ever took were electronics and drafting. I use both of them now quite a bit. Even though I may not do actual drafting, the skills of attention to detail and precision taught by that class are useful in everyday life. I never took wood shop or metal work, but if I knew then what I know now, I would have.

I too was pounded into my head to take college level prep classes in HS. I had a semester of college done before graduation. Now I'm a paramedic without even an associate's degree. Critical care and nationally registered, but no degree.

It saddens me to see industrial arts going away. Our kids need to learn how to make things again. We can't expect to remain on top if we hire out every part of out daily existence. Self reliance is a dying art.

Sorry Ray. Kind of way off topic. Now back to your regularly scheduled postings.....

This is interesting. My 9th grader, who is not doing well in college-prep type academic classes, is thinking of enrolling in our district's vocational program to take Engineering Drafting and Design; might be the best way for this really bright, but hands-on kind of kid to go. His older brother is studying to be a theoretical physicist, so each is smart in a different way. I really worry about our young people trying to make their way in this so-called economy. It seems that there is more demand now for Wal-Mart cart retrievers than anything else.

I remember when my oldest cousin decided to eschew college to go to vo-tech and become a machinist.
He was given a hard time by his family and my grandparents.

Turns out he did the smart thing. No debt and straight in to a job with good pay. He did just get a bachelors degree so he could move further up the corporate ladder but his employer reimbursed the bulk of tuition.
Here I am with an 8 year old piece of paper that took me 3 years to get and cost 20k a year.
I'm still paying it off and what little of my formal schooling I use could have been done in 2-3 semesters at community college.
I should have followed my heart and been a ski bum.

Maybe I'm dating myself here but back when I went to school the idea of college was to become educated and be a better rounded and more knowledgeable person and the general knowledge gleaned would be used throughout your life. Too bad these days it's looked on as a commodity only where unless I earn so much more it's not worth it. Maybe that's why so many "college graduates" these days aren't all that literate.

The fact is people expect too much from our educational system. The purpose is to "educate" you so you can function in society in the most general sense. With the exception of things requiring advanced studies most skill type jobs you learn on the job. That is how it has always been done. Employers these days expect too much. They want someone tailor made to their specification to come walking in the door ready to go. it doesn't work that way. Like everything else in our society these employers want it the easy way.

A large part of the problem is that a lot of colleges tout placement rates and hire percentages of graduates. All colleges, even the state schools, exist solely to make money. If they were truthful and said that college isn't for everyone and that q lot of what you learn are free thinking and problem solving skills that are wonderfully useful but don't do much for you in getting a job then they would make far less money.

I wish I had gone to a trade school instead of college, where I majored in the useful and lucrative...psychology. I had to go to school again to learn something useful. But I do know that electricians and plumbers and such make a good living, and had I gone that route at 18 I'd be a lot, lot better off than I am now.

Other professions with skill gap? I've heard lawyers.

As long as people blame the government for their own choices and failures there's not much that's going to change. I am not aware of anybody being forced to go to college. I hear free market solves all, and college education has been outpacing inflation for a long time, so it's either something really worth the money, or people are voluntarily making terrible choices.

I've met my share of college graduates who have no business looking for a job which involves thinking. And I've met plenty of people who're making their living with plumbing, carpentry etc. who are so incompetent that should be long dead if it weren't for the welfare programs.

I don't know if there is a solution that will all of a sudden make the world work like magic. The capitalistic system, along with globalization seems pretty reasonable to me. The only downside that I can see is that the elite minority eventually ends up with enough resources to turn the system from meritocracy to plutocracy.


BTW I don't see any problem with paying my plumber more than my shrink.


Also few months ago I saw in Bloomberg's business week magazine an article on the exact same subject - training people for skilled machine work, I believe it was in Michigan. The first thing was that most companies that benefit from this are not that much into paying for it and they're trying to get as much money as possible from government grants (I don't remember the exact numbers but it was really big fraction). Secondly, the graduation rates are not very high.

Finally apparently there is a big demand for unskilled labour. I read that after Alabama took very hard stance against illegal immigration a lot of their produce just rotted in the fields earlier this year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gugi

...I hear free market solves all, and college education has been outpacing inflation for a long time, so it's either something really worth the money, or people are voluntarily making terrible choices.

---

Good post. Education costs have been outpacing inflation by a long shot...precisely because the free market does not exist in the education market. Wherever government (especially the federal government) meddles, costs skyrocket and results go into the toilet. True of education, true of healthcare. I can't wait until the government takes over the market for shaving.

Yes the lack of a skilled workforce is a huge problem.

I've been machining since 85, never went to school for it and have no degree in anything. I can run the life out of an engine lathe though. Ever turn a #2-56 on a (conventional) lathe? Most every thing I do these days is CNC though.

Here's the thing. Ray is spot on, most of the kids coming out of the community college can program using Mastercam and various other programs but sorely lack in the real world knowledge it takes to make a machine sing. A lot of companies want 1 or 2 "machinists" on staff and desire to fill the majority with "operators". Load part push button, boring. There is a reason custom machined pieces can cost a small fortune, they are a bitch to make, and to do it right takes skill. To do it quickly and correctly, lots of skill. In my opinion machinists are the most underpaid trade. The rational behind this is the amount of knowledge required to do things quickly and correctly. If you are very good you understand advanced math, mechanical assembly, mechanics, some chemistry, metallurgy and basic physics. The just average, probably not so much.

We here in Washington are soon going to run into a problem. No skilled machinists to be found. If you are good you are working. This is going to be a crunch for us because Boeing just signed its biggest contract in history. Who will make the flight critical components? Well me for one, but me and those like me can not make them all. We still have medical devices and every thing else to build. There are not enough hours in the day. Not just WA though its every where.

Another problem, nobody wants to get their precious little hands dirty. Woosies. Well I don't like to get dirty either, but I like to eat and have a roof over my head. So dirty it is, don't shirk the work. The only time I have been unemployed for longer than 6 weeks was by choice, my choice. Even then it was rare and welcomed.

Because of how I was raised and am "frugal" (my Mrs. pronounces that word cheap), I can do much of what I need my self. Build an engine (never from scratch though), roof a house, build a shed, tear out a wall and replace it no big deal. Need help, call dad, (grandpa, friend, neighbor) that's how I learned. Now my daughter and son in law do the same and I am happy to help and so is his father. Not because we have to but because we value the American Spirit and our way of life.

I could go on for hours on this subject, but its bedtime

Proud to be Middle Class
Jeff

Oh yeah THERE IS NO GAP IN UNSKILLED LABOR. The gap is unemployed fools to LAZY AND UNWILLING TO GET OFF THEIR DUFFS to get out of bed and go pick apples. Our governor sent prisoners to go finish the job. The pickers made around $150 a day.

No real problem. All they have to do is file a petition and they can bring in all the machinists they want from Asia at cut-rate prices.

Brilliant points TURNMASTER. I think there are too many young people who think they are "owed" something. That or they foolishly listened to the college counseler who told them that lesbian studies of the 1960s masters degree was gonna get them far. No one wants to get dirty. GOT THAT RIGHT!!! Young folks want to do IT, electronics, video game development, bake cupcakes, make choppers or whatever else is the flavor of the week on the boob tube. There is plenty of work to be done- Retail, food, fast food, warehouse, shut downs, Military Service etc. I can assure you that all the occupy (flea party) folks could work and pay off the loans and their debts if they wanted to. They just don't. I have done all manner of work. Not bragging, but just saying. I have not liked it all, but it paid the bills. My lights stayed on, my kids were fed and I thanked God for it all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Yes the lack of a skilled workforce is a huge problem.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Oh yeah THERE IS NO GAP IN UNSKILLED LABOR. *The gap is unemployed fools to LAZY AND UNWILLING TO GET OFF THEIR DUFFS to get out of bed and go pick apples. *Our governor sent prisoners to go finish the job. *The pickers made around $150 a day.

---

Unless you want to be consistent, and use the same standard when defining a 'gap'.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

A lot of companies want 1 or 2 "machinists" on staff and desire to fill the majority with "operators". Load part push button, boring.

---

And when they change that business model there will be more skilled machinists. This is something that depends primarily on the people with skills to run a business, not on the ones with skill to machine.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

In my opinion machinists are the most underpaid trade.

---

Or just lacking the skill to negotiate a better pay for themselves. For example, bankers generally don't seem to have this problem.

I think it's getting warm in here...Anybody else a little warm?

No, no. Just step back and watch. :)

No No, gugi is correct that was improper english.. The point still stands, there are many people in this country who are able to work yet refuse to do so.

Point 2 he is also correct. There are business men whose model is to make whatever widget they produce using any means possible to drive down costs.

Point 3 somewhat correct. Many machinists outside of the union struggle with negotiating their wages. This is the USA you are worth what you can get. I do know many who are underpaid. (IMO) Often the reasons for staying at the less than stellar company have to do with other life style choices. Is it really worth driving the extra 50 miles a day to move from 40k to 55k? Other than the pay they are content with their lives and tend to live accordingly.

Funny thing though, manufacturing creates wealth, banking does not.

Jeff

Well, if recent history is a guide one banker's wealth is another man's loss in a foreclosure, short sale, or tax to be paid for bailouts ;)
Now if people start acting as rationally as the businesses and start strategic defaults en masse this can change a bit, but it's unlikely to happen.

Banking's important too, though, without it most businesses would not have the capital to invest in whatever they need to invest, and without the convenience of things like commercial paper the administrative costs to most medium and big business (which is actually the one that makes most of the wealth and jobs) would be much higher and the whole economy will be a whole lot sluggish.

From everything I've seen I've concluded that it is pretty much the same thing no matter which profession. There is always a demand for the people who are really, really good at something. It doesn't much matter if it's machining, plumbing, business consulting, teaching, etc...

The only difference is that some professions are more local, so people in them are more sheltered from having to compete with their peers worldwide.
The other thing is that the manufacturing has got the largest increase in productivity over the last 50 or so years. It's not that it has shrunk, but that a lot of it has become automated and is much less labour intensive than it used to be.
It's pretty much analogous to the industrial revolution, the likelihood of manufacturing jobs getting back to their old levels is the same as the likelihood of crafts becoming the main means of production of goods.
Yes, you can still buy all your clothes and shoes bespoke and they will certainly be of higher quality than the mass produced made in china/india/thailand/etc. versions, but if you are middle class you cannot afford it.
I don't think there is a large percentage of SRP members who wear daily Allan Edmonds shoes and these are only about $300, made in USA. I bet most wear stuff that's made abroad, likely in asia, so it is a matter of our own choices as consumers too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

No No, gugi is correct that was improper english.. The point still stands, there are many people in this country who are able to work yet refuse to do so.

---

I used to believe that too. I can tell you first hand, that at least where I live, that is not the case. There are far less jobs here than people willing to work.
My attitude about a lot of these things has been changed dramatically in the last several months.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Point 2 he is also correct. There are business men whose model is to make whatever widget they produce using any means possible to drive down costs.

---

Why is everyone so angry at business lately? Let's face it - if not for the business being profitable, you wouldn't have a job.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Point 3 somewhat correct. Many machinists outside of the union struggle with negotiating their wages. This is the USA you are worth what you can get. I do know many who are underpaid. (IMO) Often the reasons for staying at the less than stellar company have to do with other life style choices. Is it really worth driving the extra 50 miles a day to move from 40k to 55k? Other than the pay they are content with their lives and tend to live accordingly.

---

I don't know what your job market is like, but earlier you stated that there weren't enough qualified machinists to go around. Now you're saying that many of them are underpaid. Those statements are in conflict - if there is truly a shortage of qualified people, companies that need them would pay whatever it takes to get them. Look at the boom in North Dakota. Jobs that would be minimum wage here start at $18-$20 out there, because of a severe labor shortage.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Funny thing though, manufacturing creates wealth, banking does not.

---

I am confused by this... Could you please define "wealth" in this context?

Looks like I'm moving to North Dakota... How much does an acre of prime North Dakota land go for these days? All I want's an acre.

As for my thoughts on unemployment numbers: Better to close my mouth and be thought a fool, than to open my mouth and prove it...or something like that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regularjoe

Looks like I'm moving to North Dakota...

---

Ok... $18-20 is maybe a bit of a stretch, but I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anything in Williston that pays less than about $12/hour.
If you have any skills at all, it's much higher than that.

Here's a job opportunity at $70,000/yr starting salary, for those who don't mind getting a bit dirty, and risking their life a bit In Appalachia, New Coal Miners Are Scarce - Businessweek

I retract my previous plans then. I can work for twelve dollars an hour any day of the week, without a boss, a schedule, or a rule book. Maybe not every day of the week, but definitely any day of the week...

Being someone who has been unemployed and searching for work for the last three years, I take some offence to being called lazy. I was laid off from a rather large machine shop in Feb 2009 and have been able to get a few temp jobs in between, but for the most part work has been scarce. Here in Ohio, unemployment is bad. I have waited in line for 2 hours just to pick up an application for a job that paid minimum wage. I average around 20 applications/resumes a week. There are so many people out of work here that companies aren't filling open positions, knowing that if they wait long enough, the perfect person with the lowest amount of risk involved will eventually apply. Yes there are lazy unemployed people out there. My experiances however are that most of the unemployed are far from lazy here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gugi

Here's a job opportunity at $70,000/yr starting salary, for those who don't mind getting a bit dirty, and risking their life a bit In Appalachia, New Coal Miners Are Scarce - Businessweek

---

I tried to get a job in the mines but didn't pass the initial health screen due to chronic bronchitis.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HNSB

I used to believe that too. I can tell you first hand, that at least where I live, that is not the case. There are far less jobs here than people willing to work.
My attitude about a lot of these things has been changed dramatically in the last several months.

---

OK see if I can clarify a little bit. I live in a state which relies on immigrant labor to pick some of our crops. That I do not entirely object to. I have a nephew who is now 21 and collecting a state disability because he is ADHD. I have known this child all of his life and love him second only to my own daughters. He is capable of working, strong and bright. However he tends towards the "the world owes me a living" point of view. We have 3 counties north of here with 12% to 13% unemployment and high rates of welfare. Our governor authorized the use of convicts to harvest our apple crop because there were not enough workers to do the work. Illegal immigration crackdown seems to be part of the culprit. Otherwise the apples would have frozen and rotted on the trees. The pay to do the work is actually pretty fair, at least one grower pays $150 per day. It is however hard work and requires a person to travel to earn a wage. I do not support illegal workers, I also do not support people who are capable of working collecting a government paycheck when there is actually work to be done. I have a good friend who was found to be disabled after breaking his neck at work. He did get the repairs done but could not just sit around and could not perform his previous job. He retrained himself and opened a small business and now makes a reasonable wage.

Quote:

---

Why is everyone so angry at business lately? Let's face it - if not for the business being profitable, you wouldn't have a job.

---

I am not angry at business at all. If it sounds that way I apologize. I work for a multimillionaire who employes 150 people and make a reasonable wage. I would always like more, but I am not a capable businessman, so I work for one.

Quote:

---

I don't know what your job market is like, but earlier you stated that there weren't enough qualified machinists to go around. Now you're saying that many of them are underpaid. Those statements are in conflict - if there is truly a shortage of qualified people, companies that need them would pay whatever it takes to get them. Look at the boom in North Dakota. Jobs that would be minimum wage here start at $18-$20 out there, because of a severe labor shortage.

---

I should have qualified this a bit. Prior to the recession it was VERY difficult to hire a GOOD machinist. After the recession most good machinists are employed in this area. Now on to the difference in wages. This is a little more difficult. There are a number of shops who want 20 years of experience and wish to pay an entry to mid level wage. There are always entry level people willing to work for $12 an hour and that is OK with me. Where we run into the biggest problem is many of our local shops have been burned. How you ask. They hire a man who claims 20 years of journeyman experience and has the card to back it up. They pay the high wage only to find out he can't do the work. Problem is it was all running a single machine in Seattle, and that is the extent of his skill. Yet he claimed to be able to do complex set ups. Another factor is cheap labor from Asia. People are more than happy to buy a product from China (or where ever) at a 50% discount, even if the quality is lacking. People want what they want, and they want it now. Often are unwilling to save up the extra money and wait the extra time to make the purchase. For the record the wages are beginning to climb

Quote:

---

I am confused by this... Could you please define "wealth" in this context?

---

Wealth is the abundance of valuable resources or material possessions. Wealth is created and is not a finite resource. It should not be confused with money. I believe money can be viewed as a means of moving wealth from one person to another. A pure barter system is unwieldy at best. Say I make a razor you want from $10 in material, $20 in outside service and 10 hours of my own. You want the razor but only have half a side of beef to trade. My freezer is stocked already. So it works better for you to trade the beef for $750. Now you give me the $750 for a tool which should last a lifetime and I go pay my mortgage. In the end we each gained a valuable resource and we both created wealth. Neither of us had $750 invested, yet in the end both gained $750 worth of material possession.

I strongly urge you to do some research on the creation of wealth. It would be educational to learn which industries create wealth and which industries redistribute wealth. I should say that I am more than happy to redistribute some of my wealth for the services I choose not to do myself, (dentistry for one).

How do i get the multiple quote bubble thing to happen? Most of my answers got wrapped into the quote bubble. OK now it different but still not multiple bubbles.

Jeff

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

Where we run into the biggest problem is many of our local shops have been burned. How you ask. They hire a man who claims 20 years of journeyman experience and has the card to back it up. They pay the high wage only to find out he can't do the work. Problem is it was all running a single machine in Seattle, and that is the extent of his skill. Yet he claimed to be able to do complex set ups.

---

This one's easy, it is sheer incompetence on the people running the business and therefore it ought to fail. They are using quality A (job experience) as a proxy for quality B (skill level). If they want certain level of skill and are willing to pay more for that, they should asses that properly. Just assuming both are interchangeable is plain wrong and they are destined to suffer the consequences of that.

Somehow I don't think it's that hard to have the machinist applying for the job perform some sample work on site and voila - you can judge how good he is. At the very least during the interview process one should probe the level of work the prospective employee has done previously. And if it later turns out he was lying, well that's why contracts have probation periods in them.

The bottom line is that assessing the skill of the prospective employee is actual work, so if you do bad job at it you'll get bad results. The cost of rehiring is pretty significant, and smart employers know it (they should know the exact number to within $1000), and don't skimp on the preparation.


It's also interesting to see the attitudes of people who join this hobby. They are somewhat representative of the whole society, so looking at what their priorities are and what choices they make when picking up their equipment is rather telling.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

How do i get the multiple quote bubble thing to happen? Most of my answers got wrapped into the quote bubble. OK now it different but still not multiple bubbles.

Jeff

---

each quote starts with

Code:

---

[ quote]

---

and ends with

Code:

---

[ /quote]

---

minus the spaces between [ and /

if you want to be fancy you can do

Code:

---

[quote=screenname]

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TURNMASTER

How do i get the multiple quote bubble thing to happen? Most of my answers got wrapped into the quote bubble. OK now it different but still not multiple bubbles.

Jeff

---

What Gugi said. You had both your start end end tags for quote with the slash in there. The begin quote needs to not have the slash. The end quote needs it.

Hey thanks