Thread: New Chinese Leadership

Money and prosperity will win out in the end.

James.

Here in the USA we owe them so much money they won't mess with us. Besides, if they went to war with us we'd run out of equipment and supplies fast. It's all made in China.

Yea, nothing like a "Mexican standoff".

Bob

Originally Posted by BobH

Yea, nothing like a "Mexican standoff".

Bob

More like a Chinese fire drill if we get caught w/ our pants down.

The thing about China is that they think long term. We tend to think short term, and change has to happen tomorrow or we're not happy.
Change will happen in China, but it will happen very gradually. For example, when hongkong was transferred back to China, the Chinese happily agreed to the proposed laws, leaving the kapitalistic way of life there intact for another 50 years. 50 years is nothing to China. It is also why China is happily shoring up the US national debt. They're already thinking of collecting their debt while for the US this is so far away that noone is really thinking about it.

In the meantime, it sucks to be a chinese resident if you are not one of the movers and shakers. Civil rights don't exist there and the nail that sticks out get hammered down. Recently there was a case where someone whose land was seized for some project or other, and he didn't agree. In the end, the steam roller just rolled over him and the work continued. That is quite literally how China works.

I remember seeing an interview with a shifty CEO from a huge Philips plant in China, and when asked about the human rights issues, he just avoided the question. Between the lines, he indicated that as long as you hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil, the Chinese government gives foreign companies everything they want, and then some.

Originally Posted by Bruno

I remember seeing an interview with a shifty CEO from a huge Philips plant in China, and when asked about the human rights issues, he just avoided the question. Between the lines, he indicated that as long as you hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil, the Chinese government gives foreign companies everything they want, and then some.

Unlike the USA China doesn't have two opposing parties with a totally different moral compass. Their leader doesn't have to take the 'bully pulpit' to try to get support for his agenda. No debate, no compromise. I remember the idiot USA talking heads saying that the student revolt circa 1989 in Tianamen Square was going to be akin to the French Revolution of 1789. I don't have a degree in anything much less journalism but I knew that was hogwash. Then the tanks began rolling over students.

I vaguely recall western governments trying to lecture China over Tiananmen Square and being told to basically shut the front door if they wanted to do business in China. The human rights thing did not take long to died down after that. It is still raised from time to time more for western domestic consumption that anything else. Justified by the go lightly approach and they will come around when they become capitalists allowing business as usual. Looks like it is working out.

Bob

Originally Posted by JimmyHAD

Here in the USA we owe them so much money they won't mess with us. Besides, if they went to war with us we'd run out of equipment and supplies fast. It's all made in China.

Plus there are more Chinese than the US has bullets
Well, not quite, but the Chinese don't care about human losses.

I agree, reforms are bound to happen eventually, although that will not be on the west's timetable. The Chinese leadership knows fully well that stability is more important than prosperity and that has and will continue to limit the rate of changes.

My bet is that nothing dramatic will happen overnight, but over the long term more regular chinese people will move towards improved economic standard of living, and with that they will ask for more political concessions from the ruling elite. In another generation or two there may be competitive political parties.
One place to look for the timescales of sociological changes is Russia and Eastern Europe - even if you put a new political system in place overnight, the society remains largely the same.


Edit: BTW that article in Washington Post is the typical superficial fare for poorly informed readers. From the main stream sources I think the Economist has done the best job of keeping their readers informed with what's going on in China.

Originally Posted by gugi

I agree, reforms are bound to happen eventually, although that will not be on the west's timetable. The Chinese leadership knows fully well that stability is more important than prosperity and that has and will continue to limit the rate of changes.

This is an important consideration. With a billion and a half citizens, you just can't risk upheaval because the end result will be worse for everyone. In fact, this is what went wrong in Russia. When Gorbachev threw in the towel, everything collapsed. There was no stable transition to another structure. They experienced a period of anarchy and pure capitalism, and life for the average Joseph just fell to pieces. This is why vladimir Putin is still extremely popular. He may be an elected tyrant, but he is a strong leader and has brought back some form of order.

And it is also true that forcing political change just doesn't work. It didn't work in Eastern Europe, if doesn't work in Africa, it is still touch and go in Iraq, and it is failing in Afghanistan. You can't just change a culture overnight. If the population isn't ready for it, it just doesn't work. The idea of democracy in places like Africa or western style freedom of speech in China just does not work. At least, not short term. Not until their society is ready to embrace it.