Thread: If I win at the casino this weekend, im buying a strop. Help me out

Originally Posted by Hillie

But most casinos are there to make money, so you'll be escorted out in no-time if they catch you doing this.

Having worked in a casino for the last 4 years, I can tell you two very important things.

1. No casino in the world would EVER throw a person out for doing this because........


2. It doesn't work.


The roulette wheel has no memory. It doesn't know that it hit 5 blacks. Trust me. It's made of wood. It has no clue. Every space on the wheel has the EXACT same odds of landing as every other space, with every single spin. Period.




This is the difference between players and casinos.

Players play the "short game." You come up with what looks like a clever little idea, you try it a few times where it seems to work, so you think you're right.

The casino plays the "long game." They understand that given enough time, the profit and loss ALWAYS matches the odds on the game. What that means is that over time, you will ALWAYS lose. This basic concept is what makes casinos work.

There are only 2 exceptions to this.

A. Poker is not played against the house. Because of this, there are many ways to improve your odds.

B. Counting cards, which the casino will kick you out for. However, contrary to what Hollywood would have us believe, counting cards is INSANELY difficult to do with any degree of success, since most casino blackjack tables use 6-8 decks per game (and the single and double deck tables are watched very closely) and even if you are INCREDIBLY skilled at counting cards, you're still not guaranteed to win, you're only increasing the odds in your favor.

Originally Posted by VeeDubb65

The roulette wheel has no memory. It doesn't know that it hit 5 blacks. Trust me. It's made of wood. It has no clue. Every space on the wheel has the EXACT same odds of landing as every other space, with every single spin. Period.

Exactly. This is why you need a sufficient buffer. And the 5 runs on one color and buffer of 6 consecutive bet-doublings, in my opinion, are completely random. It may work in many times, but it can also happen that you've got enough money with you to cover 20 consecutive bet-doublings during your losing streak, yet the wheel gives you the wrong color those 20 rounds. Unlikely, but possible. It's fairly basic probability maths behind it.

On the other hand: It's good news for your cardiologist if you're running out of buffer, but the gains are fairly little with a long streak.

Hillie, every bet you put down you're more likely to lose than win. In the long run you lose.

Precisely why I only play poker at the casino

Originally Posted by Undream

Hillie, every bet you put down you're more likely to lose than win. In the long run you lose.

How would you reason that?

Originally Posted by Hillie

How would you reason that?

Well, it's simple.

Because of the two green spaces, the best odds on a roulette table are LESS than 50% but pay out only 2:1. So you are always more likely to lose that win. It's as simple as that.


I say this not as an insult to one person, but as helpful advice to anyone who thinks they can "beat the house" - If you don't understand how and why you are more likely to lose than win, you should not ever go to a casino for any reason.

Originally Posted by VeeDubb65

Well, it's simple.

Because of the two green spaces, the best odds on a roulette table are LESS than 50% but pay out only 2:1. So you are always more likely to lose that win. It's as simple as that.

That's true, it reduces the chance a little below .5, but I don't think far enough to become problematic when it comes to exhausting the buffer. With a decent enough bet, the sequence of doubling might boost the bets through the roof, bringing exhaustion rapidly closer. Still, I would consider going to a casino a night out, not a way to make money. And in my book a night out costs some money.

I say this not as an insult to one person, but as helpful advice to anyone who thinks they can "beat the house" - If you don't understand how and why you are more likely to lose than win, you should not ever go to a casino for any reason.

Casino is entertainment and aimed at making money, not losing.

Were you in a popular gambling area Steve?

I did put my theory to the test and did play this many times. All I wanted to do was put the odds in my favor as the house wants the odds in their favor. While buddies were being blown away in all the other games, I was slowly winning and by the end of the day, I made a decent amount.

Once the crowd picked up on what I was doing, the risky bets shrunk and the good money was on my methodology. Thats when Security would check my IDs and politely ask me to leave along with any followers that I picked up. I respected their wishes, cashed out and left.

I still laugh at the thought of so much money piling up on a color choice and the roar of the crowd when it hit. After being booted out of several casinos, I finally got the hint.

Enough on this one......good luck to all.

Pabster

Gents if you just want to lose some cash I have a little game you might like to try!!!!

Originally Posted by Hillie

How would you reason that?

Its called Expected value. Google it.

Every bet you make at a roulette table has negative EV.

The only casino game where you can have +EV is poker. and that is only when players at the table are worse then you, which..for me is often

Originally Posted by Undream

Its called Expected value. Google it.

Every bet you make at a roulette table has negative EV.

The only casino game where you can have +EV is poker. and that is only when players at the table are worse then you, which..for me is often

Yeah, I know about basic probability maths, but here it's not just the basic E.