Thread: Mythical, more powerful sniping service?

Originally Posted by JeffE

I didn't realize that there was this much software support for trading functions on eBay. I think this is what n***t is using here, and it's probably not a very difficult program to write. Just read whatever is the current auction price (say $A) at t-:05 or so, and then submit a bid at t-:01 for $A+5.

You won't win when there's multiple snipers bidding or when the high bidder isn't near his maximum, but you'd end up stealing a few auctions where another sniping program would leave you out of the running.

Still pretty clever in my estimation anyway.

As long as you have the $$$ to cover a sniper war, or are willing to retract bids regularly.
Say there are two people with deep pockets (in addition to our programmer sniper) that really want a particular Escher. The sniper's program is set to increase the bid by $5 at t-:01 or whatever.
Let's say the price of the auction at t-:10 is $350 (which is also the maximum amount bid to this point). A enters $1000 as a max bid, the bid at t-:09 now is $355. B enters $1000 as a max bid. The price now at t-:08 or so is $1000. Our sniper's software now puts him in for a bid of $1005 and he is stuck with it.
Of course, I suppose he could program it to not bid over a certain amount, but then what is the point? The only thing he gains is that eBay doesn't know what his true maximum bid would have been. But... He will lose a lot of auctions that he might have otherwise won by submitting a true max bid in the fashion of a typical sniper.
I just don't see an advantage to a software that does that.

That's right, he has to have a "failsafe" or some other kind of protection written into the program, or he'd get clobbered with some ridiculous bids now and then. That goes without saying.

The benefit, however, comes from when he's not quite sure what to bid for a stone (or he's bid so low that's never in the running). In that case, his program gives him a second chance, so long as he's happy with a "reasonable" amount bid at t-:05 plus $5. So let's say that there are several snipers who know these stones well, and they always bid between $300 and $320 for a stone in this condition. Then n***t joins the auction, but his normal, "sniper" bid is $250 -- in other words, it's irrelevant. The experienced stone snipers all submit bids around their maximum price, and the one who sniped the highest amount would ordinarily win, EXCEPT that n***t then rides in at the last minute and gets one, last chance -- after everyone else has bid -- to top the last amount by $5.

In effect, every sniper only gets one chance to "guess" at the winning price, while n***t gets something like two chances -- the first being his normal, sniper bid and the second being his "last bid plus $5" bid. Sounds like an advantage to me, even if it doesn't guarantee success in every auction.

Another monkey wrench in the works, (sorry bout this) but iirc ebay give a random alphanumeric code to hide bidder's true identity for each auction, so n***t is likely a different person at each auction.

And I still don't think there is anything spooky going on in bids like this one, except for people paying too much for a razor. N*N simply sniped with 2 seconds to go.

Originally Posted by markevens

Another monkey wrench in the works, (sorry bout this) but iirc ebay give a random alphanumeric code to hide bidder's true identity for each auction, so n***t is likely a different person at each auction.

And I still don't think there is anything spooky going on in bids like this one, except for people paying too much for a razor. N*N simply sniped with 2 seconds to go.

Mark, the ebay random alpha code is random, but it is consistent across auctions, so n***t is certainly the same guy in both auctions. If you don't believe me, you can also compare the number of stars for n***t in both auctions (identical) or just check a few of your own auctions but without logging in first. You'll see that you are always "a***b" or "x***y" in every single auction you bid on.

And I agree with you about the auction you linked to. That one involves just normal sniping. I also linked to it above because someone else suggested that the bids shown for n***t on eBay were not his final, maximum, chosen-in-advance bids because they were within $5 of the winning bidder's final bid. But that's not how eBay's system works, as you can see in the auction that you and I both linked to.

Thanks again for all of the insights!

We are all guessing here what's going on. Why not ask ebay customer services?

Originally Posted by Kees

We are all guessing here what's going on. Why not ask ebay customer services?

Yea, I'm going to try to find the right person to ask. Thanks again!

This is why I bid my max early and forget it. To much insanity involved at the last second. If someone whats it more than I do fine. It will probably be up again next week...

Not a fan of ebite snipers...

Originally Posted by DwarvenChef

This is why I bid my max early and forget it. To much insanity involved at the last second. If someone whats it more than I do fine. It will probably be up again next week...

Not a fan of ebite snipers...

Same here. I'll put a low bid so I can track it by email and keep up with the auction, then if I think I can get it for a good price I'll bid a good amount before all the sniping. So far I doubt it's cost me very much money.

Originally Posted by burns420

Same here. I'll put a low bid so I can track it by email and keep up with the auction, then if I think I can get it for a good price I'll bid a good amount before all the sniping. So far I doubt it's cost me very much money.

TBH I don't see much difference between a sniping program and doing it by hand this way. Except you're making more work for yourself by having to go enter your max bid manually, and also that you're likely much earlier than a sniping program would do it.

I suppose one advantage is that your max is entered before the snipers so if they are equal you will win for being first. Still, even then you could configure a sniping program to enter your bid much sooner than they normally would if you wanted that advantage and you wouldn't have to go do it yourself.

Personally I think Ebay should just do away with sniping entirely by running auctions like real auctions. So long as bids are still coming in the auction doesn't time out. Every time a new bid comes in the time gets extended until everyone's had a chance to counter. Then sellers would get the true market value of their wares and the person most willing to pay the most for the item would always get it.

Many of the firearm auction sites II watch have the 15 second rule after the close,