Thread: The Ukraine situation

One other factor to consider is the historical ties between Russia, Syria, and Iran. I could see this triad/alliance trying to assert its muscle as a regional power in some ways, with Putin as its required egomaniac. Assad already knows that he can slaughter his people wholesale with impunity (and who wants to assist "the rebels" when many of them are apparently Al Qaeda affiliates?). Yet another geopolitical s**t-storm in which there are no easy choices. And if that's not complicated enough, we still have NATO allies in Eastern Europe who are no doubt growing nervous.

I am going to go along with what Bruno said, as a matter of fact I will go one step further. If we look at what Vladmir has done in recent years we will notice that he is almost done putting the bulk of the old Soviet Republic back together either thru economic strangleholds or military intervention.

Just for kicks, as soon as Vlad feels comfortable I would put money that Aberdijan is next thing on the shopping list. Oil and gold fields.

Yesterday evening on the news they called him Tzar Putin. And that is remarkable because Belgian news usually makes a big effort to only report fact and not present opinions or judgement calls. I feel that we are now approaching the point where using jokes or 'nod nod wink wink' to come to terms with the fact that Putin is indeed only paying lip service to parliament or the democratic process and acting like a supreme ruler. He is rebuilding the old soviet empire, but without the crutch of state controlled communism.

This is also imo why western disarmament is a bad idea. Not that I think war is a good idea, but if only one side has a big army, the other side has forever to rely on the armed side playing nice.

Unless you want war, as in the US vs Russia then the first move has to come from the EU, the US might back that move, but the first Economic move must be from the EU...
Money talks and the 1/2 Trillion in trade that the EU does with Russia is a much bigger economic stick then the $38 Billion that the US does.. Besides the internal political strife, and economic woes that US has right now.

On the thought of war, Obama doesn't seem to understand that having the Sec Defense announcing we are downsizing the Military and making drastic cuts to the Defense budget last week, kinda makes his BS sabre rattling pretty much a joke this week ..

That being said I am not so sure that Putin is all so wrong in his actions, my understanding is that over 60% of Ukraine is tied to Russia, Putin made his intentions quite clear when it came to the Crimea, he said what would happen and obviously his idea of drawing a "Red line" has teeth and 16k Russian troops to back it up...

Perhaps the solution is simple, let the half of Ukraine that wants to side with the EU do so and become West Ukraine and the half that wants to side with Russia do so and become East Ukraine...

Originally Posted by gssixgun

Perhaps the solution is simple, let the half of Ukraine that wants to side with the EU do so and become West Ukraine and the half that wants to side with Russia do so and become East Ukraine...

I get the distinct feeling,that's what's gonna happen.

Originally Posted by gssixgun

Perhaps the solution is simple, let the half of Ukraine that wants to side with the EU do so and become West Ukraine and the half that wants to side with Russia do so and become East Ukraine...

Since things tend to look different when its your own country - it is just as simple as having Texas, Oklahoma, and the other red states become South USA and the blue states can become northeast&west USA. After all they seem to have opposing political ideals.

Originally Posted by gugi

Since things tend to look different when its your own country - it is just as simple as having Texas, Oklahoma, and the other red states become South USA and the blue states can become northeast&west USA. After all they seem to have opposing political ideals.

Yes, many of us are good with those ideas, in fact it would not be a huge surprise to see just that in the not so distant future... When one's central government no longer represents the entire populace then perhaps it is easier to just change...

There are quite a few states that are talking about North/South or East/ West splits...

One that comes to mind is my neighbor to the West, WA state, the huge divide between the Coast, and the rest of the state has the two very different populations at odds...
Most of WA state is by area a rural life style, but the population centers along the coast have the votes and swing the state, so yes it would not surprise me at all to see more then 50 states in my lifetime

Originally Posted by gssixgun

Perhaps the solution is simple, let the half of Ukraine that wants to side with the EU do so and become West Ukraine and the half that wants to side with Russia do so and become East Ukraine...

Do not believe everything you see from the news.
Only a small minority of all Ukraines wants their home country to split. Federal has a support. Currently there are some protesters and gunmen controlling Crimea. They have made clear to majority that supports Maidan that they better stay indoors and shut up.

Originally Posted by gssixgun

Unless you want war, as in the US vs Russia then the first move has to come from the EU, the US might back that move, but the first Economic move must be from the EU...
Money talks and the 1/2 Trillion in trade that the EU does with Russia is a much bigger economic stick then the $38 Billion that the US does.. Besides the internal political strife, and economic woes that US has right now.

We've had an exceptionally soft winter this year, and it looks like spring is already beginning in earnest. However, Russia has got us by the nads through the gas pipeline that is feeding natural gas to most of Western Europe. If they pinch the pipe, we're in a lot of trouble. Trade sanctions will hurt them eventually, but having no gas will hurt us right now

Originally Posted by gssixgun

On the thought of war, Obama doesn't seem to understand that having the Sec Defense announcing we are downsizing the Military and making drastic cuts to the Defense budget last week, kinda makes his BS sabre rattling pretty much a joke this week ..

Meh. The US army is still bigger than that of the next n countries combined. Let's be honest. The US could downsize quite a bit without losing much if any capabilities as long as no global war breaks out.

Originally Posted by gssixgun

That being said I am not so sure that Putin is all so wrong in his actions, my understanding is that over 60% of Ukraine is tied to Russia, Putin made his intentions quite clear when it came to the Crimea, he said what would happen and obviously his idea of drawing a "Red line" has teeth and 16k Russian troops to back it up...

Perhaps the solution is simple, let the half of Ukraine that wants to side with the EU do so and become West Ukraine and the half that wants to side with Russia do so and become East Ukraine...

The russian naval bases are right there at crimea. Putin is not going to give up a centimetre of influence. This is a civil war waiting to happen, and unless they split the country or come up with a government that is acceptable to all major parties, there will be conflict.

Reading the latest from the BBC it looks as though you are correct Bruno, the EU is not onboard for Economic Sanctions... I don't think anyone including the US is all that anxious to get into a shooting war... Although our Politicians seem to be talking a good game of Economic Retaliation, if the EU isn't going to play there isn't much the US can do...


Not so funny fact now...

One of the cuts to the USAF they proposed last week... The A-10, reason given last week, "The A-10 has outlived it usefulness as it's only true mission was to destroy Russian tanks during the Cold War and we just don't see that scenario as being realistic any longer"

Might want re-think that one guys