Thread: If you thought global warming was going to be a big problem, read this...

Originally Posted by Bruno

You are not trying to bring logic and common sense into a political discusion, are you

I'll take that as a compliment from my chief detractor!

read the title and thought it was gonna be some doomsday rant about Apophis, but instead it's oil...

but really, I doubt it will make much of a difference. people found ways of living before we used oil, as other posters have said, and I suspect people will find other energy sources as we continue to move forward.

improvise, adapt, overcome.

I made the original post not because I was concerned life on our planet was essentially coming to an end in 10-years as the author suggested... that seems a little overly dramatic to me. But I was intrigued by the notion that increasing the cost of oil could trigger a world economic crisis. That doesn't seem so far fetched to me.

I'm somewhat familiar with the abiotic oil debate, but it doesn't seem that relevant in the short term. Unless huge quantities of affordable oil are being created in decades instead of eons, it seems to be only a distraction to the issue at hand... the immediate concern being the cost of recovering the oil from the ground in quantities sufficient to meet world demand. The peak oil concept says that the cost is increasing faster than it's affordability, so demand is driven down by economics, not by lack of want/need. Since I can't see how the world want/need demand is going to stop increasing... certainly developing nations will demand the same conveniences the industrialized nations have... it would seem to me that we're facing a potential powder keg.

So that leaves me wondering, how much does the price of crude have to increase before the economic pressure becomes so great that the situation becomes explosive? If there is an explosion, will the result be wars where the mighty just take their oil form the weak... certainly history is replete with examples of countries at war over water, precious minerals, coal and iron ore deposits, etc. Or will the result be economic collapse? Or both?

Is there any chance that the situation won't reach an explosive point?

I can think of a whole country full of people that know the oil crisis has caused tens of thousands of explosions.

But seriously the there is no doubt that it will be a source of international tension The doubt is how much, how fast, and to what end etc.

To which I say: Who knows?! Make provisions if you can, when it begins to affect you. And meanwhile we should work toward a solid solution, participation is encouraged but not required.

Originally Posted by JMS

I lived in Arizona for four years and at least four months out of the year we had our air conditioner on! we kept our house at 80 degrees fahrenheit And believe me, when you came in out of that desert heat you felt like you were walking into an icebox! In the desert Air conditioning is a must either that or live underground!

I have no problem with airco at all.
I have visited Texas, Arizona, Utah and Nevada in August. I know what it is like.

But instead of keeping the airco in the convention center at 16 dgrees celsius (causing Europeans to wear tshirts over suits ) it could be set to something like 21 or 22 celsius, allowing people to wear only shirts inside.

But lots of businesses in TX seem to want the airco set to freeze, just to get people to wear suits and tie inside.

I've even known 1 company where people force the windows open to make it warmer inside, and still kept the airco going...

[I]"If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally."

If it would really come down to that, on so short notice, being alive would have nothing to do with foraging, but with being either a ruthless killer or skilled negotiator.
Because if those millions of people leave their city en masse, and move to the country side, they will be hungry and desparate.

So either you country survivor -who grows his own stuff and owns the fertile land- find a way to peacefully coexist with them, in a way that leaves them sheltered and fed, or you are going to have to kill a lot of desparate people who have to choose between die or kill (in order to steal / take what they need to live).
And given that there will be mobs of desparate people vs spread out individuals and small communities, you won't stand a chance, no matter how well armed you are.

And that is just at national level.
If the US would starve while china would carry on (lots of fertile soil, lots of local industry and agriculture) There will be global war.

This author is a chicken little. These claims are the basis of his doomsday scenario:

Originally Posted by Guy McPherson

Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days.

Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps.

They motivated me to look up crude oil futures prices, which I repeat below:

06/2008 $113.65
06/2009 $96.20
06/2010 $103.60
06/2011 $97.00
06/2012 $103.43
06/2013 $92.31
06/2014 $93.75
06/2015 $93.50
06/2016 $94.00

The price of oil today is about $113. The above prices are very informative because they reflect the market's aggregated view of likely future oil prices. Those prices reflect the opinions of those who are putting their money where their mouths are. It looks to me like there aren't many informed market participants who think we're about to run out of oil.

Who knows what the author's agenda is, but he certainly holds an unconventional opinion on the state of the world's oil supply. The rest of his doomsday scenario seems no better founded than his estimate of future oil supplies and prices.

It would be cool to drive to the store in your hydrogen-powered car and read how Saudi Arabia is asking the UN for money, since no one is buying their oil anymore. It would probably make the terrorists happy, as they would be rapidly reverting to a pre-industrial economy.

"Thanks, but we have all the sand we need. No, I don't want to buy a date palm either..."

Oh thank god, a fellow motorcycle enthusiast. I've been losing sleep over this for two days! Thank you!

Originally Posted by SteveS

This author is a chicken little. These claims are the basis of his doomsday scenario:



They motivated me to look up crude oil futures prices, which I repeat below:

06/2008 $113.65
06/2009 $96.20
06/2010 $103.60
06/2011 $97.00
06/2012 $103.43
06/2013 $92.31
06/2014 $93.75
06/2015 $93.50
06/2016 $94.00

The price of oil today is about $113. The above prices are very informative because they reflect the market's aggregated view of likely future oil prices. Those prices reflect the opinions of those who are putting their money where their mouths are. It looks to me like there aren't many informed market participants who think we're about to run out of oil.

Who knows what the author's agenda is, but he certainly holds an unconventional opinion on the state of the world's oil supply. The rest of his doomsday scenario seems no better founded than his estimate of future oil supplies and prices.

There's lots of interesting reads on this subject... many are skeptical. But many are well reasoned and presented by highly credentialed physicists, economists, etc. Who know whose right? Here's an interesting one by a CalTech physics professor that is less doomsday, but nonetheless somewhat disturbing when the possible ramifications are considered.