Thread: How bad could the U.S. economy get?

Chris,
I too wish to understand our current situation more and I also share your sentiment to keep it civil. I don't trust much of anything the government or their controlled media outlets say, and matters of the economy are no different. I think that preparing for the worst will leave you better off regardless of what ultimately happens. Any extra money I save from here on out I will be buying gold. Not gold futures or promises but actual gold. I feel that gold, in the event of a total collapse of our economy and or the world economy, will retain it's power in the market where all of the stocks, bonds, and federal reserve notes will be even more worthless that they are now. I have heard some very good, non partisan, economist's speak on some of my favorite shows on We The People Radio Network. One of then is Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, here is his wiki link Paul Craig Roberts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia but do some searching on his work. You can listen to WTPRN live on their website linked in my signature. I believe the economy should be controlled by companies, small businesses, consumers, and supply and demand NOT BY GOVERNMENTS! With that being said, partisan politics have no place in this discussion at the root level. I hope we find the information we are looking for.

I don't think it will get much worse overall. It's a rough time, sure, but I think that we're also about to see a big boom in business in the next few years. Whatever it is that we're in right now will shake up all the "bad" companies and make room for people to build new businesses that actually work.

I've been doing some reading about all the foreclosures on homes, and it's honestly not surprising. The boom that real estate saw was not entirely real, so the market is going to have to equalize. From what I can tell, lenders went the car loan or credit card route by giving damn near anyone a loan, then dumping the loan off on someone else who didn't care. There were likely a lot of people that could afford their loans but due to something or another ended up between a rock and a hard place.

Those lucky few who are able to ride the small wave back to our prior greatness will be the next Trumps. Here's hoping I can be one of them

I think we are playing by a new set of rules now, far different from what we have ever dealt with before. Many of the factors affecting our economy are beyond our control. We are now part of the world economy. We have lost our independence and been sold out by big business.

In times past we had an economy based on primary industries instead of a service economy which suffers when things go south. We have a widening gap between the wealthy and poor and a disappearing middle class. people in this country will not come together to solve our problems instead becoming more polarized. Of course we have the oil situation which is sucking our country's economy dry. We are a debtor nation and a debtor economy. Our destiny is controlled by foreigners. Our Government is unwilling or unable to address the problems affecting us all and our society is in moral decay. This country is in deep do-do.

I think any economist trying to predict which way things go is really doing a coin toss.

Oh and I like the poster who said the Democrats made the Great Depression-recovery worse. Funny considering it was the republicans and their failed economic policies and lack of regulations in the financial market that caused the Great Depression in the first place. The fact is what brought the country out of the Great Depression was not the new deal policy. That was window dressing. it was the second World War and the massive Government Spending and war effort in general that was responsible for that.

I would just like to mention that we only have a 5.7% unemployment rate, if the economy were "that bad" is seems to me that the unemployment rate would be a lot higher. I also don't understand why alot of people are so quick to blame the government for a sagging economy, there is not much they can do about the economy except adjust taxes and federal reserve rates. If anyone knows specifics on what the government can do PLEASE inform me as I am NOT an expert, just an average joe citizen that doesn't worry too much about what the media tries to hype about but what I see and understand.
Photoguy67

Originally Posted by ScottS

Boy, then we should be jumping for joy that just the opposite of these policies have been going on for the last 7 years, or we'd really be screwed up now. Maybe instead of just killing GM, the oil companies would have released plagues to kill all our wheat, too!!

I'll take the opportunity to point out that Obama's economic plans include cutting the govt's revenue by 10%-- i.e., an overall tax cut.

1. He plans for an overall tax cut while also planning for government expansion. Which one will happen once he is elected? Will these tax cuts include those who don't pay taxes, like the last few rounds of tax rebates? Democrats don't cut taxes, it is political suicide.

2. He proposes a tax increase on the rich who, by IRS standards, make 70K+ as individuals. For those who find themselves in the highest tax bracket the marginal tax rate will reach 58%. This alone is enough to stall the economy at the best of times.

3. While I am by no means an advocate of how our government has been run the past seven years, Obama's programs, plans and policies in aggregate represent a devolution not an evolution. Nearly every thing he would seek to accomplish has been tried and failed.

4. GM killed itself, not Washington. Its been dying slowly for decades. If any one thing has killed it, that would be GMs inability to swiftly adapt to changing consumer demand.

5. Yes, the oil companies have made a lot of money recently. You are, however, aware that the Federal government makes more from each gallon of gas sold than any given oil company, aren't you? If oil company profits have been "obscene," how do you describe Washington? At least oil companies bear some risk. Uncle Sam just takes.

If an Obama presidency results in lower taxes, smaller government, a healthy economy and more individual freedom, I will be the first to admit I am wrong. Gladly. Unfortunately, I suspect it will result in social malaise and unrest, a stagnant economy and rampant political correctness.

Have a read from this past June: RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert - Telegraph

Doesn't look good, and there are many many more sources that are saying pretty much the same thing.

The only thing I can sensibly comment on is the tourism angle.
I have been to the US before and as far as vacations go, it was the best. Mind you, it was also my honeymoon and I married there, so that might have something to do with it.
And we have the plan to go back for a long trip 'sometime' but as things now stand, t'll pobably a long while.

The US is really scaring away people with their DHS 'everyone is a terrorist' attitude.
I am just visiting. Why do I have to be fingerprinted? It's not like I did something wrong. And my laptop and electronics can be seized indefinitely. All because the terrorists might enter the country with a stolen MP3.

Any sensible terrorist would encrypt his stuff, upload it to google and a free storage provider, and then download it inside the US. Good thing the terrorists didn't think of that.
It seems to me that all these measures only annoy decent people, whereas they won't mean anything to any terrorist organization with funding and good planning.

The US government is scaring people away by droves.
When I visited the US, a dollar was worth 1 euro and a bit. Now a euro is worth 1.6 dollars. And tourism is down despite being financially attractive.
And that is a shame because the US is definitely a great place to have a holiday.

Yes, unemployment is just 5.7% but that does not reflect reality just like the official inflation rate is only around 2. something percent for the year. Tell that to the consumers out there. How many people who are unemployed have given up looking for work and how many have settled for jobs paying a fraction of what they were paying before. Those people are not reflected in the unemployment rate.

Laid off from your $25 an hour job because your factory moved to China, don't worry Mc Donald's will be glad to hire you at the minimum wage rate or slightly higher.

Originally Posted by thebigspendur

Oh and I like the poster who said the Democrats made the Great Depression-recovery worse. Funny considering it was the republicans and their failed economic policies and lack of regulations in the financial market that caused the Great Depression in the first place. The fact is what brought the country out of the Great Depression was not the new deal policy. That was window dressing. it was the second World War and the massive Government Spending and war effort in general that was responsible for that.

Who then do you think is the worse offender, those who "allowed" the Depression to happen or those who exacerbated and lengthened it?

As far as "failed" economic policies and lack of regulations are concerned, I find it amusing that no one complains about a lack of regulation when a market is booming. Only after the fall do free markets - capitalism - get blamed. I don't recall anyone clamoring for more control and regulation during the stock markets boom in the late 90's or the recent housing boom. No one said "Oh, dear! My Enron stock is terribly over-valued, the energy market needs more SEC oversight" or "My house has appreciated 150% in the past five years, perhaps I shouldn't refinance based on its new value." No, the whining about failed economic policies commences after the fall, conveniently overlooking the simple fact that a free market can and will correct itself.

Well when your jetliner is coming in for a landing and the defective engines blow and your dead it doesn't do you any good talking about who's to blame and who should fix the problem. If the depression didn't happen you wouldn't need to talk about fixing it would you?

As far as regulations go they are only enacted in answer to some problem that needs to be addressed. Every economic crisis from the panic of the late 19th century to the current crisis is due to greed and an attitude that as long as we are getting away with it and we're making money I'm not worried. Then when the crisis happens people want the Government they accuse of over-regulating them to come and bail them out.

Banks and Financial institutions pay MBA's a lot of money to sit there and be creative and design schemes where they have a free hand to do anything they wish a couple steps ahead of the regulators and they make a killing and get out and the other poor schnooks like sheep follow and get hosed and the crisis happens and the government comes along a adds more regulations so that doesn't happen again. Then the cycle begins again. Somewhere on Wall Street people are conspiring right now how to make more money for themselves and a few years down the road this will happen again.

As has been said many times a crook is a crook whether he sticks a knife or gun in your back or a pen and calculator (or laptop) and they should be dealt with the same which they are not. In some ways the guy with the laptop is worse because you don't even realize what's happening until its too late.