Thread: North Korea shelling populated South Korean Island

Originally Posted by fpessanha

Why do you think Russia might back up the North Koreans? And why do you think that Russia backing up the North Koreans might be worse than having China - the world's most populous nation and the the second largest economy in the world - do it?

Becasue China actually has something to lose by upsetting the apple cart. They own a third of US debt, and export almost all of their goods to Western countires for consumption. Their economy is so strong because of the Western consumer, so they'd probably be a little easier to work with if it came down to it. China has also openly admitted to being embarassed by North Korean actions, yet not enough to sever all ties.

Russia is not in the same situation, and therefore has less to lose. Which, IMHO, makes them scarier to me than China.

Originally Posted by CDogg

Russia is not in the same situation, and therefore has less to lose. Which, IMHO, makes them scarier to me than China.

As far as i could think of, why would Russia back up NK? Less to lose is no way a good reason.

Originally Posted by CDogg

Becasue China actually has something to lose by upsetting the apple cart. They own a third of US debt, and export almost all of their goods to Western countires for consumption. Their economy is so strong because of the Western consumer, so they'd probably be a little easier to work with if it came down to it. China has also openly admitted to being embarassed by North Korean actions, yet not enough to sever all ties.

Russia is not in the same situation, and therefore has less to lose. Which, IMHO, makes them scarier to me than China.

Good point... China does have a lot to loose. But it would have a lot to win, as well. Why not upset the apple cart and taking advantage of a possible victory to reshuffle the equilibrium of power to their side. They do say they are embarassed by the North Korean actions and, ndeed, Mao Tse Tung and his lunacy is long gone. Despite having been replaced by other kinds of lunacy... On the other hand, this would mean TOTAL WAR. And what would be there to rule and own after a total nuclear war. They would be rulers of a world of cinder and ashes... and so would the western powers.

Originally Posted by Sailor

As far as i could think of, why would Russia back up NK? Less to lose is no way a good reason.

Russia, having nothing to lose, has nothing to win. There is not longer the problem of ideology. Communism no longer exists in Russia and the USSR is lobg gone now. If there is a nation that might help put an end to this in diplomatic terms might actualy be Russia.

If this breaks out into war - a war of anihalation - we are all buggered now!
If we equate what each of us has to lose and what we have to win, we do have a lot more to lose... lives, homes, friends and family. This will not escalate. The international community will simply carry on and ignore the looney bin has it has done for the past 57 years.

There be dragons there.
China is trying to pull the rare earth supply plug out from
under Japan. While China holds a massive bit of the
world debt it is not clear that they are worried about loosing it
or wielding their economic club.

The economy in N. Korea is very different when compared
to S. Korea.

I do believe they will sort it out, but my Uncle fought in
the Korean war and having listened to him and my Dad
(WW2-pacific) on the rare occasions that they did talk
it was clear that we do not grock the history and emotional
politics in that part of the world. Listening to them made
the decisions regarding Viet Nam by their generation "obvious".

N. Korea has been stagnated and isolated from the world for decades
and who knows how they consider their risks.

Originally Posted by Stubear

The other problem is that the North is claiming they have new uranium enrichment facilities and have also just appointed Kim Jon Il's son as successor, so they are looking to flex their muscles a bit I suspect.

Yep, plus the North Korean leaders always do something like this when they want something. Usually what they really want is a lot less dramatic or drastic than whatever device or incident they gin up to get attention. They have, to say the least, very strange ideas about what constitutes diplomacy. I think they have this idea that they somehow scare us into doing what they want. What they remind me of is a really bratty 3-year-old with parents who never say "no" or deliver a much-needed swat.

Not to say that this isn't disturbing, but they really don't want to go to war with the South and the US. They want something else--street cred for Kim Jong Il's son, for the US to agree to one-on-one talks about their nuclear program, food/fuel/aid--some combination of those things or all of them.

Originally Posted by Sailor

As far as i could think of, why would Russia back up NK? Less to lose is no way a good reason.

I'm not suggesting Russia enter into a conflict simply because it has less to lose than China - I'm only suggesting that if Russia were to enter, they may be unpredictable, while China may be more cooperative.

Don't forget that Russia helped create the People's Republic of North Korea, and even installed Kim Il-sung as the first leader of the country. They've maintained their alliance ever since, despite international pressure and UN pleading.

I'm not saying the two governments are the best of friends, either, just worth keeping an eye on. Again, I'm hoping for the best, and will be keeping an eye on the news.

Originally Posted by Stubear

.. people "condemning X in the severest terms" ...

S'okay, I'm used to it.

X

Interesting analysis here: Tensions on the Korean peninsula: What you need to know - Yahoo! News

Originally Posted by fpessanha

That's quite an interesting point...
This is just like the cold war. Or is it still the same cold war? Only with slightly different things that crept up into the cold buffet of international diplomacy...

The difference is that the entire world suffered from the cold war and stood a risk of triggering WW3. A global war is still unlikely due to the nuclear deterrent of all the big players. A Korean war will be a catastrophe for the Koreans, but the rest of the world will just get on with things.

Originally Posted by fpessanha

Why do you think Russia might back up the North Koreans? And why do you think that Russia backing up the North Koreans might be worse than having China - the world's most populous nation and the the second largest economy in the world - do it?

China is currently conquering the global economy and pulling their own country from the mug by their bootstraps. they have everything to lose from a Korean conflict and nothing to win. They'll try to protect NK to some degree because of the ideological angle, but otoh they will want to keep them at a distance as well because they need the goodwill of the rest of the world.

the Russians, otoh have no such conundrum on their hands, and would probably benefit greatly from China's misfortune. They would do anything to attract investors away from China.

It is a little concerning. We are quite close down here.

Nothing like a nutcase with nukes to spoil the party.

I heard the US, Japan and Australia are locked into talks at the moment with South Korea to come up with a solution, in consultation with China.

I hope it is, as previously, mostly bark.