Thread: UK out of EU

I read the whole thread, over all, not much has been said of any consequence, a waste of your and my time. Have a more productive day, if you can.

Originally Posted by UKRob

So Bruno, you don't consider that Serbia, Croatia and Boznia Herzogovina were engaged in a war? What good was the EU during that conflict? The fact that there has been nothing more serious since the end of the Second World War does not mean that it could not happen again. Look what happened when Germany broke it's agreement with Russia over Poland - and I'm not suggesting that Germany is a likely aggressor, it's just that NATO serves a far greater part than the EY does in terms of security..

It's not about EU magically causing wars to disappear anywhere in the world - it's about continually decreasing the likelihood of wars between members of EU. When people move around and form more ties with others they stop seeing them as enemies and different and start seeing them more and more as friends and similar to them and there is much less support for waging wars.

Yugoslavia was not part of EU and it is an example how people who have lived together for few generations are still susceptible to resorting to the worst for no good reason. The difference between Serbs and Croatians isn't culture or language or ethnicity but sectarian within the same Christian religion - Catholics and Orthodox. They're closer to each other and share a lot more than (Northern) Ireland and England, yet they managed to see enough difference to create so much death and destruction. The same thing has been going on for Millenia with countless wars. But EU has vastly decreased the chance of this happening because of the deeper ties that the people in various states have with each other, as well as the increased prosperity which makes the cost of war seem really big.

150 years ago the states in US could see each other as so different that a war didn't seem terribly out of place - today you will have very difficult time finding americans who would view a war between, say Georgia and Pennsylvania as anything but lunacy. Somehow over half a dozen generations of free trade and free movement people got to identify primarily with what unites them rather than with what separates them. Even if it still consists of, to use the parlance of our times, Maker states and Taker states, virtually everybody sees being one country as a good thing.

Originally Posted by FAL

I read the whole thread, over all, not much has been said of any consequence, a waste of your and my time. Have a more productive day, if you can.

That is because nobody really knows what kind of consequenses there might be. Now more and more people over here and there slowly begin to realize that whatever they were promised was just a nice talk.

Of course everyone hopes it will turn ok for both Britons and EU.

The consequences are more than clear - UK is viewed as economically worse off than when it wasn't leaving EU and that's reflected in the depreciation of its currency.
Money is leaving UK and the other day one private equity fund suspended withdrawals because of it, the value of UK assets has been cut, and UK has to figure out new ways to fund its deficit.
UK will have a new prime minister, most likely Theresa May.
Scotland is calling for a new referendum to split from UK, since on the last one year and a half ago they were told that remaining part of UK means remaining part of EU.


Those are rather serious economic and political consequences and the average bloke will be tightening his belt soon enough if not already.

The question here is not only about Britain or whether EU should learn a lesson about this all. To understand EU you need to be educated enough to know the history of Europe from the times of the fall of the Roman empire to present.

Britain will be now an example how individual nation could defend it's profits against xxl-superpowers like India, China, Brazil, (Russia), and United States ie globalization. Do they have an immunity against it outside the Union? That is something those pro-exit propagande let people to believe.

Will UK be able to gain better for each and every of it's citizen on it's own is something the whole world now waits to see. As long as there is no leader to step forwards the situation might get not only better but also worse.

Originally Posted by Sailor

The question here is not only about Britain or whether EU should learn a lesson about this all. To understand EU you need to be educated enough to know the history of Europe from the times of the fall of the Roman empire to present.

Britain will be now an example how individual nation could defend it's profits against xxl-superpowers like India, China, Brazil, (Russia), and United States ie globalization. Do they have an immunity against it outside the Union? That is something those pro-exit propagande let people to believe.

Will UK be able to gain better for each and every of it's citizen on it's own is something the whole world now waits to see. As long as there is no leader to step forwards the situation might get not only better but also worse.

Sailor, I've said it before in this thread, the decision to leave was not down to economics - it's one of sovereignty amongst other things. Everyone accepted that there would be market turmoil in the short term but this was seen as acceptable if we were to get out of a union that wants to form a supra national state.

I'm getting tired of contributors who see no other option than economic ruin - the UK has the world's fifth largest economy and will be able to leverage that when it comes to negotiating future trade deals. I don't know how that will pan out - and neither does anyone else. But let us please stop the mis-information about 'no leader to step forward' - the Conservative party are in Government - they have a leader who has tendered his resignation and an election is under way. Nothing in the daily life of parliament is affected and the country has not come to a standstill.

Originally Posted by UKRob

I'm getting tired of contributors who see no other option than economic ruin -

Yes, these people can be incredibly boring, indeed. However, those who analyse, assess, and then comment on the potentially ruinous, but certainly detrimental, after effects are a different story entirely. Slandered as experts by right wing politicians cashing in (both figuratively, and literally) on a disenfranchised elecorate's inadequate level of informedness, the have been right, and will be right, as you already have begun to see in the last few days.

Originally Posted by UKRob

the UK has the world's fifth largest economy and will be able to leverage that when it comes to negotiating future trade deals. I don't know how that will pan out - and neither does anyone else.

The UK was the world's fifth largest economy until Brexit: France overtakes Britain as world’s fifth largest economy as Brexit fears hit markets | Home News | News | The Independent

Once you guys have deported, or scared away, a few million immigrants (as promised by leading Tories and UKIP alike), we shall see what remains of that economy. Especially once the MFI sector has been fully hit.

Originally Posted by UKRob

But let us please stop the mis-information about 'no leader to step forward' - the Conservative party are in Government - they have a leader who has tendered his resignation and an election is under way. Nothing in the daily life of parliament is affected and the country has not come to a standstill.

You may find a leader to step forward. Unfortunately, she will still have no plan how to manage the UK's exit from the EU. Which, if I may be so blunt, is the result of one of the most reckless, short-sighted, and deceitful political campaigns in Europe after 1945.

Robin, I really don't know how to respond to your posts anymore - other than to say that the UK economy is in far better shape than the French - it has created more jobs in the last few years than the rest of the EU put together, the run on the stock market lasted two days and then went back to normal, the devaluation of Sterling is not a wholly bad thing - ask Greece and Spain if they would like a currency devaluation - and all of this is off the top of my head without having to resort to cherry picking articles off the internet.

I will ask you one question - if the members of the EU right now were to be asked whether they would join the organisation in its current form if it did not exist - what would the answer be?

The French have a saying - Il y en a toujours l'un qui baise, et l'un qui tourne la joue" - there is always someone who kisses and one who turns the cheek - well this time it's the UK who has turned the cheek and, in effect said you can kiss my a$$.

UKRob, careful with the use of the word "baiser". Colloquially, it means "to screw". Still a very "fitting" proverb.

Originally Posted by UKRob

Robin, I really don't know how to respond to your posts anymore

But Rob, that's a really simple one:

Seriously though, I think there is very little, if anything, to add to this thread at this point in time. We will all have to wait until the next Prime Minister has been nominated. I do not think anything substantial will happen until then, not now that the EU has declared its unwillingness to negotiate with the UK before the UK has invoked Article 50. And that may take a long time for all we know.