Thread: An epidemiologist's word on Covid 19

I hate that this has crept into our forum and I do think it's admirable that we haven't had, or at least I haven't seen, hysterical conversation about this like the rest of the world seems to be having. Still it came up in the "Any hockey fans out there?" thread that the NHL has postponed the remaining 19-20 season until further notice. Not at all ironically I sent a text to a friend of mine who is an infectious disease doctor This morning to ask his opinion. What follows is our text conversation. I have uncertainty as to whether he would speak publicly the same way he would to me privately. Even if he would I don't believe it would be fair to speak on his behalf without his permission. Because of this I'll just refer to him as B.

Me: Hey B, hope you're well. It seemed like something you would know. So has the whole world gone crazy or is it just me because this whole covid 19 craze all seems like irrational hysteria? I mean, I know it's early on but if you compare the numbers to influenza It seems a little out of phase and no one seems to flip out about influenza. Maybe they should more than they do.I don't know unless there's something that the public is not being told it just seems a little over the top.

B:I hear that a lot from relatively young healthy people like yourself. Don't forget that certain groups have a 15-20% mortality.

At least 10 times greater than influenza death rate and much more infectious than influenza. Population has no immunity.

May be 30 x influenza.

35K death from influenza

Me:Yeah I get that and I'm not trying to dismiss it. But can't the same be said for influenza? Every single year there are hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide from influenza and we know it's a danger but we go about our lives. It just seems like the world has really need jerk to this.

B:Translates to 350K -400K deaths at least in USA.

Health system in Europe already overwhelmed.

Me:Okay well that adds some perspective. Responded before your other texts came in. I'm certainly not dismissing anything. I just want to try to keep it in perspective. Sometimes the media blows things out of proportion. Washing hands a lot, trying not to have too much contact with others physically, using hand sanitizer and keeping my hands out of my face

B:We have lived so long without plagues and

Me:Well also I'm not as young or as healthy as all of that. I'm nearing 60 plus I'm down a kidney and stand a certain amount of risk of losing the other one from too many nsaids trying to fight off fever. That's partially why I asked. I appreciate your input as always B

B:Keep care Paul

Me:Thanks B. You too! I worry about you working with these kinds of things. Stay safe.

Of course this was a text conversation so I'm sure you get the disjointedness of it. I think you can tell by my questions and responses that I am not an alarmist and I'm certainly not trying to scare anyone but my friend is a highly respected physician in his field. I personally am going to go about my life and try to practice good hygiene and stay healthy as much as possible. Still pandemic is not something that any of us should take lightly. I am not trying to stir the pot or cause any alarm and I know from previous discussions that there are going to be a lot of opinions about this and many are not going to agree. This being the case I'm stepping out of this conversation as of now. I just figured it was worth sharing what he told me.

I am not surprised as he is not saying anything the WHO and various other experts from around the world have been saying for a while now. To put politely, there has been a lot of misinformation spread out there about Covid 19 and it's likely consequences. All you can do is take the reasonable precautions these experts are advising and hope for the best. Panicking will do no good and neither will denying the likely reality of Covid 19.

Bob

Seems like most people that get it experience something more like the flu. If they get it bad though due to underlying health issues, it gets really bad.

My sister-in-law (Chinese) is the only person in her household allowed to leave the apartment for essentials. One person per household can go out for things like groceries. Everyone else is basically under house arrest during the quarantine.


One woman in the US that came forward about her experience said she didn't think she had it until a friend said, "hey, did you know some people at that party tested positive for covid19?" She got a test and doctors confirmed that was what she had. She just thought it was the flu since her symptoms were not that serious.

I'm just outside of Atlanta and there is a couple of presumed positive cases in my county. Schools in the neighboring county are closed. I've got a 3yo in daycare and those kids share every germ/virus they come into contact with so that is not comforting. I won't be surprised if her daycare ends up closing for a while.

You guys take care.

We live in a world far removed from death and diseases that can kill you. To most of the world's population living in first world countries you get a vaccine and if you get sick take some pills and it's over.

Folks are simply not prepared for a world where everyone knows someone who will die similar to what happened in 1918 just then it was the young who suffered and died by the score.

Really the only thing you can do (especially if you are at greatest risk) is stay away from people the best you can. That might be hard to do but it might be a life or death decision.

Remember, scientists know next to nothing about this bug even though they can see it which they couldn't do in 1918. Will it mutate will it come back next winter like the spanish flu did and wreak havoc then?

Maybe some honest to goodness fear is what we need right now.

I remember a discussion about getting your flu shot, just recently. And I made the comment of...no thanks!

That it wouldn't matter, because nature always keeps things in balance. Just as with wildlife, once there is a overabundance of a particular species, disease always follows. Killing off the weak, so the strongest may survive, is natures way of keeping a healthy balance on this planet.

The reason for all new strains of viruses, reason for the corona.

Sorry if I don't candy coat things, I'm a get to the point, kind of guy. Were all going to die, just a matter of when, and how. I can except that. Its inevitable.!

Twice I've looked into the eyes of the grim reaper, and laughed in his face. For I have no fear of death, nor evil.
Life goes on, till it doesn't. Life is a journey, not a destination.

Not saying...throw caution to the wind, just enjoy life while you can. Never know what tomorrow will bring.

My wife and I had some errands yesterday. We noticed that the parking lots at two emergency care facilities were full. Normally, there are only one or two cars there. When we went to Walmart, aisles normally stocked with toilet paper and paper towels were completely empty as were the aisles where bottle water is stocked. My wife and I are trying to make sure we have sufficient provisions to stay at home for two weeks should we need to self-quarantine, but we are not panicking, nor are we hoarding more than we might need for that period.

At least I am well stocked for shaving supplies. Beards can harbor pathogens, so either shave them off or wash them frequently.

Got an email last night from my sons school confirming that classes would be on today. 1 hour later got oen from the school board saying all classes at all schools are canceled

Bureauocracy

The Ontario March Break starts Monday. Provincial government announced all schools closed for the two weeks after the break as well. This is serious stuff and the 2 weeks will allow any kids or teachers who become infected over the break to be identified and quarantined and hopefully get clear of the virus before school starts up again.

As much as I disagree with a lot of stuff the Ontario government has done in the last couple of years, this seems a smart move. It’ll be tough on a lot of families who need the schools open so they can work, but it does seem to be a necessary public health action.

According to statistics we have 1832 cases(US). 10 are critical or serious. The others are milder cases. Im not saying its going to stay like this but incubation period is 5 to 14 days. I guess we shall see how this is going to end. It isnt the big one though IMO because if it was all of China would be severely infected and dead or dying. And that is not the case. And 60% bourbon it will be for me until this is all over! LOL

What’s scary is the way that people are acting. If this was something really bad I imagine society would completely devolve over night. I was in Luckys last night and there are a few isles that were completely empty of product.