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10-17-2012, 01:58 AM #11
Very interesting. For my town the auto theft and the arson are higher than I would have thought.
To give you an understanding of my point of view here are some rough figures from my personal experience. I have long moved away but still have family there and hear the gossip.
The town is about 175 people. I make this 500 for easy figuring and the surrounding farms. 2 murders in the last 30 years. By my math [feel free to prove me wrong] I should multiply this by 6.666 to equal 100,000 per year and I get 13.33 per 100,000. Much higher than the inner city where I live at 5.7.
One of my favorite sayings is that liars figure and figures lie. But it is food for thought.
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10-17-2012, 02:10 AM #12
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10-17-2012, 02:22 AM #13
Very true - statistics can prove to be very wonky if used inappropriately, whether intentionally or unintentionally. And when one has a small sample size, a small blip can cause a major skewing of the numbers. But I do think that statistical crime figures can give an accurate snapshot of the situation in communities of similar size. Particularly in larger centres where the large sample size can help reduce the effect of blips.
So I think comparing cities like Kansas City (~450,000), St Louis (~320,000), and Winnipeg (~675,000) can be valid because of the sample size. But I'd never consider the same figure for a town like, say, Gananoque (~5,000) because a single act by a single individual could skew the figures so badly.
It was in original condition, faded red, well-worn, but nice.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Cangooner For This Useful Post:
earcutter (10-17-2012)
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10-17-2012, 02:29 AM #14
That's true enough, but if you average it over a five or ten year period - including the smaller citys gives you a good idea as well.
Interestingly, violent crimes in a small town is a bigger problem conceptually than in a bigger city. When you live in a city of 3 million it is hard to personalize. When Bobby killed auntie Gertrude... you never forget that lol.Last edited by earcutter; 10-17-2012 at 02:32 AM.
David
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10-17-2012, 02:45 AM #15
That is why I used the 30 year example to try to even out the odd blips.
In a small town it can skew the perception though also if you watch the news from the big city and think 'Holy cow they have 2 murders a week {in the city of 3 million} and it has been 15 years since Bobby killed Aunt Gertrude. I am much safer here!"
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10-18-2012, 04:34 AM #16
Wow, that is shocking! i can not even imagine that happening.
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10-18-2012, 04:54 AM #17
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earcutter (10-18-2012)
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10-18-2012, 04:57 AM #18
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10-18-2012, 05:22 AM #19
Re: Discarded
Wow dude thats what kills all rights for responsable gun owners. I have a 2 and 3 year old and they both know not to touch daddys guns even if they aren't loaded (which they never are around my home) and im cleaning them. Simply becsuse all guns should be treated like they're loaded. And I have successfully taught them about firearm safety and what they will do (end life). For all thst its pointed at
Thank you,
Swerve
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10-18-2012, 05:26 AM #20