Thread: The Ukraine Situation

Originally Posted by gssixgun

Well the question of Nukes became a different issue today as Russia just attacked the largest Nuclear Plant in Europe

Chernobyl version 2 anyone ???


I feel good, all the "Experts" say it is doubtful that we will have a leak

That is a separate issue from using actually nuclear weapons. Russia used conventional weapons to attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In this kind of attack, I will grant, there is the very real possibility that you can wind up with a situation like Chernobyl where a huge amount of radiation is released. For that reason it is an insanely stupid idea for Russia to have attacked a nuclear power plant.

Bob

Originally Posted by BobH

That is a separate issue from using actually nuclear weapons. Russia used conventional weapons to attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In this kind of attack, I will grant, there is the very real possibility that you can wind up with a situation like Chernobyl where a huge amount of radiation is released. For that reason it is an insanely stupid idea for Russia to have attacked a nuclear power plant.

Bob

I don't know how accurate the media are that I've read but the air attack resulted in a fire at a nearby training facility. Authorities said there were no casualties Can't help wondering if it was a surgical hit rather than insanely stupid. In any case Russia moved in and now controls the power plant so they won't be bombing themselves in the near future I'd assume.

Originally Posted by onimaru55

I don't know how accurate the media are that I've read but the air attack resulted in a fire at a nearby training facility. Authorities said there were no casualties Can't help wondering if it was a surgical hit rather than insanely stupid. In any case Russia moved in and now controls the power plant so they won't be bombing themselves in the near future I'd assume.

Yea, anything is possible but there is a video that has been shown on TV where you can see what looks like tracer fire around the plant. Regardless of whether it was a precision strike or some thing more random, the idea of throwing high explosives around anywhere near a nuclear power plant has to qualify as an insanely stupid activity. I don't think I have seen a military range where war games are carried out sited anywhere near a nuclear power plant. That might indicate just how unsafe fighting an actual war near one is.

Bob

I just read a piece by a retired General in the UK. I don't remember his name or even where I read it so I can't provide a link.

The long and short of it is that he was of the opinion that although he understands why NATO or the US don't want to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, he thinks we should worry less about Putin's threat of using Nukes, except possibly strategic ones because he's not as stupid as people think and he knows that if he actually pressed the big button it would also be the end of him and Russia too.

He feels that eventually we (the west) will have to enforce a no fly zone and it basically boils down to do we want to fight Russia now or do we want to fight them later because we are going to fight them so perhaps a no fly zone would let the west give Putin a bloody nose and finish him while the Russian troops are mostly in Ukraine and in a mess.

He also felt that if Putin fired even one small strategic nuke in Ukraine, the west will immediately get it's boots dirty with Ukrainian mud.

Incidentally, I saw on CNN last night that Putin is asking Syria to send troops to reinforce his own in Ukraine.

Putin is placing demands in diplomatic negotiations the other side can't possibly accept. Probably stalling for more time to get his military rolling again. With a diplomatic solution out of the question barring Putin doing a 180 and changing his diplomatic negotiating stance going to war with Russia, now or later, is the only other solution. That involves gambling on Putin being sane enough not to resort to nukes. Enforcing a no fly zone over Ukraine would be the start of such a war.

Bob

I personally don't think Putin will ever start a Nuclear war. I think he's discovered how effective the threats are and this is not the first time he's done it.

I think that firstly even he doesn't want to be responsible for starting something that will destroy the world, secondly there's every chance that however carefully chosen the Russians that man the silos are they may realize what they are being asked to do and just not. Last but not least, Putin has to know that the west (US) can easily press their own button before the Russian Missiles hit.
It doesn't matter who has the most when it comes to overkill.

Originally Posted by STF

I just read a piece by a retired General in the UK. I don't remember his name or even where I read it so I can't provide a link.

The long and short of it is that he was of the opinion that although he understands why NATO or the US don't want to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, he thinks we should worry less about Putin's threat of using Nukes, except possibly strategic ones because he's not as stupid as people think and he knows that if he actually pressed the big button it would also be the end of him and Russia too.

He feels that eventually we (the west) will have to enforce a no fly zone and it basically boils down to do we want to fight Russia now or do we want to fight them later because we are going to fight them so perhaps a no fly zone would let the west give Putin a bloody nose and finish him while the Russian troops are mostly in Ukraine and in a mess.

He also felt that if Putin fired even one small strategic nuke in Ukraine, the west will immediately get it's boots dirty with Ukrainian mud.

Incidentally, I saw on CNN last night that Putin is asking Syria to send troops to reinforce his own in Ukraine.

He isn't the only one, quite a few are saying "Enough" to the kid glove approach to Putin,

My problem is I don't think we have strong/smart enough Western leaders right now to play this dangerous game with Putin...
Militarily NATO could take out the Russian forces in Ukraine in a couple of days using just Airpower, and Putin knows it..
Unfortunately his only recourse would be Tactical Nukes, and he might just very well do it

Originally Posted by gssixgun

He isn't the only one, quite a few are saying "Enough" to the kid glove approach to Putin,

My problem is I don't think we have strong/smart enough Western leaders right now to play this dangerous game with Putin...
Militarily NATO could take out the Russian forces in Ukraine in a couple of days using just Airpower, and Putin knows it..
Unfortunately his only recourse would be Tactical Nukes, and he might just very well do it

I don't think it's that risky actually. I think that as former KGB Putin is proficient at threatening behavior but, I think that's all it is and we should call his bluff. Tactical Nukes are a real possibility but I think the attidude should be , dare ya, go on do it, and Russia will cease to exist, go on, go on, do ya feel lucky Putin.

You never know, he might just dig a hole and hide in it like Saddam did.

Putin ain't hiding or be digging any hole.

He's in the catbird seat right now. The west won't take any direct action. heck, they can't even agree to send Ukraine some ancient jets.

He doesn't care about his soldiers. History has shown Russian upper class has never cared about their fighting men. They are nothing but canon fodder. Russians don't even know what's going on.

He will continue to plod along until he reaches his goal ot gets what he wants diplomatically.

The only question is how far can he be squeezed before he is backed into a corner and does what?

Also what happens when American Volunteers are captured by the Russians and are paraded around for propaganda. What does the U.S do?

The chances for this spreading increase with every escalation.

Originally Posted by STF

I don't think it's that risky actually. I think that as former KGB Putin is proficient at threatening behavior but, I think that's all it is and we should call his bluff. Tactical Nukes are a real possibility but I think the attidude should be , dare ya, go on do it, and Russia will cease to exist, go on, go on, do ya feel lucky Putin.

You never know, he might just dig a hole and hide in it like Saddam did.

If they do call Putin's bluff, I do hope to God your estimate of low risk is correct. Right now it is Putin who is doing the daring and so far there is no "no fly zone" and no declaration of war on Russia by any western nations. That reinforces his low risk assessment of the consequences of invading Ukraine. There is nothing so far to change his mind on the risk factor. He is forcing other nations to call his bluff and holding pat on that. The ball is solely in our court. I am sure as hell glad I do not have to make that decision is all I can say. Interesting times.

Bob