Thread: North Korea

I feel for the people there, not their "leaders"!
They could tomorrow tell the world they want to end this stand off and trade their nukes for help with infrastructure, industries, healthcare and such.
In 10 years they could be a totally different country, a good one!

Thanks lemur . I saw that a couple of years ago. I've done a fair bit of reading on NK because I think it's an interesting country. If is the last of the dictatorships that still live in the previous century, in terms of politics. From what I've seen, the people of NK are just the same people as us.

There are 2 reasons why they behave the way they do (the general population):
1) they've been lied to all their lives, like in the 1984 novel.
2) not being very visible and outspoken in your admiration for the big leader is a sure way to have you and your family killed.

The ones who are perhaps not cynical about human nature are caught by (1). The ones who are, are covered by (2).
But they are just people like you and me. They just have the bad luck to be born in a state where the army is firmly in power, with a figurehead on top who is acting like a high priest.

Could we destroy NK? Sure. Just trigger a nuclear holocaust. And kill tens of millions of innocent NKans in the process.
NK cannot end the cease fire without causing their own collective suicide. Don't let yourself get riled up over propaganda.

A couple of decades ago, we had a similar situation with Chruchev hammering the table with his shoe, shouting 'we will bury you'. You have to recognize propaganda for what it is. If you let yourself take action because of the other side's propaganda, you're letting them control you.

There is an interesting article which analyzes the military situation
IISS The Conventional Military Balance on the Kore

It goes into quite some detail, but the summary is close to what I already said: neither side can realistically expect a succesful first strike without dreadful consequences.

Conclusion

The combination of North Korea’s long economic decline and enhanced US and South Korean military capabilities has diminshed the threat of a North Korean invasion of South Korea. Nonetheless, North Korea retains the ability to inflict heavy casualties and collateral damage, largely through the use of massed artillery. In effect, Pyongyang has more of a threat to devastate Seoul than to seize and hold it. North Korea’s conventional threat is also sufficient to make an allied pre-emptive invasion to overthrow the North Korean regime a highly unattractive option. In theory, US forces could carry out pre-emptive attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear facilities and missile emplacements, but such attacks could provoke North Korean retaliation and trigger a general conflict.


North Korea cannot invade the South without inviting a fatal counter-attack from the US and South Korea, while Washington and Seoul cannot overthrow the North Korean regime by force or destroy its strategic military assets without risking devastating losses in the process. In this respect, the balance of forces that emerged from the Korean War, and which helped in maintaining the armistice for 50 years, remains in place. None of the principal parties want to fight a war although they are prepared to fight if necessary. In this respect, the balance of forces creates certain vulnerabilities since it places a high premium on carrying out a pre-emptive strike if one side or the other believes that an attack is imminent. The danger is that war will begin out of miscalculation, misperception and escalation, rather than design. As a consequence, reduction of political tensions and conventional confidence-building measures can help to reduce the risk of war.

Originally Posted by Bruno

There is an interesting article which analyzes the military situation
IISS The Conventional Military Balance on the Kore

It goes into quite some detail, but the summary is close to what I already said: neither side can realistically expect a succesful first strike without dreadful consequences.

It would be impossible for NK to even try to invade SK without sending thousands of troops there where they could see how are things down there in the south. And to realize that those NK leaders have been lying all the time. Such action would be a disaster to NK leaders. It's the truth that kills dictatorships.

Off course there are other things preventing the idea of invasion too

Originally Posted by Sailor

It would be impossible for NK to even try to invade SK without sending thousands of troops there where they could see how are things down there in the south. And to realize that those NK leaders have been lying all the time. Such action would be a disaster to NK leaders. It's the truth that kills dictatorships.

Yes. Eventually. After too many mean, women and children have died.
Those soldiers would not stop shooting mid-assault because they see a McDonalds sign

Originally Posted by Bruno

Yes. Eventually. After too many mean, women and children have died.
Those soldiers would not stop shooting mid-assault because they see a McDonalds sign

I see the point.

There's a hell of an propaganda engine going on in the north. Saying that SK ( and the western world) is a nation of evil and hunger.

But after letting NK forces in the south there would be no way in the world to prevent those troops to tell how the world looked down south. That they have been lied for whole their life.

In any case that would be the end of the dictatorship. Truth hurts. Of course in such case his story would over within hours, by west or China.

The man in the north might be cruel tyranny and surely looks funny but i do not think he is stupid. There is no way he can 'win'. At best he starts making small reforms. Small enough not to lose his face. All the other choices are worse, for him.

Respectfully, you guys crack me up,look at all those German soldiers who saw all those regular people coming off the trains and realized that they were lied to and these were people just like them and turned on Hitler,and let's just see what happens in Venezuela now that Chavez is dead,they still love him even though he didn't do a thing for the poor in that country

Originally Posted by Grizzley1

Respectfully, you guys crack me up,look at all those German soldiers who saw all those regular people coming off the trains and realized that they were lied to and these were people just like them and turned on Hitler,and let's just see what happens in Venezuela now that Chavez is dead,they still love him even though he didn't do a thing for the poor in that country

I am not entirely certain what point you are trying to make?

Originally Posted by Grizzley1

Respectfully, you guys crack me up,look at all those German soldiers who saw all those regular people coming off the trains and realized that they were lied to and these were people just like them and turned on Hitler,and let's just see what happens in Venezuela now that Chavez is dead,they still love him even though he didn't do a thing for the poor in that country

To be fair Chavez did do some things for the poor of Venezuela, but he did so in an unsustainable way on the back of an oil boom and with consumption of foreign goods rather than the development of the domestic economy. I don't envy his successor's job. But I suspect that's another thread entirely.

Back to Korea... in theory, exposure to the wealth, culture, and freedom of South Korea should turn many North Korean heads. The problem is of course that in order for a significant number of North Koreans to experience this tour of the South would require the deaths of hundreds of thousands if not millions of human beings. I just can't see anything good coming out of heightened tensions and/or outright hostilities on the peninsula. At least nothing that would justify the terrible cost.

To me, the punching the bully in the nose theory does not extend terribly well to foreign policy and international relations. The problem in this particular case is that after being punched in the nose, the bully may well kick you in the swingers and then proceed to hit all your friends in the neighbourhood over the head with a stick. Although the bully knows that you will then exact terrible revenge, in this case, I don't think he cares. He would probably just seek to get his revenge in first, regardless of the consequences or repercussions.

I just hope that the people of North Korea manage somehow to free themselves without a return to open warfare on the peninsula. It would be very, very ugly.

Originally Posted by Bruno

I am not entirely certain what point you are trying to make?

The point is sometimes an Iron fist in a velvet glove works,and again with all due respect,the world doesn't yell to Belgium for help,its usually us,and sometimes a pre-emtive strike is the most effective way.JMHO
P.S. humans aren't an endangered species,and the earth could use a good enema once in a while