Thread: UK out of EU

Originally Posted by Thug

Just read an interesting hypothesis ...

Thanks for this. It was an interesting theory.
At the same time union demands britons for the quick leave. Scots are not doing it easier for Britain either.

This is a big and most complicated issue, no matter what we think. Might be even more than anyone could imagine.
We are lot wiser within a year or two. Many decisions made today will have consequenses that might be seen only after decade or two.
I'm not saying it's good or bad. It is just something both Britain and Union have to live with and get over. 'Times are a-changin' and the change will never stop there or here.

In many European province they look now on Scotland and wonder if they also could do better under union without taking unneccessary and harmful rules and restrictions from their national capitols. Might be that we see a bit shaking in few national states.

Even my country consists originally of 3-5 tribes or kingdoms (depending the way you count it). There's still sort of different 'identities' remaining in both language, origins and traditional habits and manners.

Looks to me like a world wide phenomena going on with the world becoming more and more chaotic and way more dangerous.

Those folks who believe in "The End Of Times" may have something there.

Originally Posted by thebigspendur

Looks to me like a world wide phenomena going on with the world becoming more and more chaotic and way more dangerous.

The phenomenon has two aspects: Anti-intellectualism, and people's willingness to believe lies. Climate change denial and this utterly unbelievable amount of outright lies (which are not even questioned by the media) are good examples: http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/.

The world is simply becoming more complex, but instead of dealing with this complexity with an open mind, a growing number of people shut down their brains, close their eyes, and vote for seemingly simple solutions. And simple solutions to complex problems are always wrong.

Think 1920/30s Germany. World War 1 lost? Jewish backstabbers! The economy going down the drain? Jews did it. Society becoming more open and inclusive? Jewish attempts at destroying the Aryan race. And so on and so forth. And we all know just how well that ended (eg with 94% of Solingen's industrial district being turned into ashes).

And now I see other badly coiffed, monumental liars. And they are indeed dangerous. A majority of people in the UK have succumbed to the lies told by a bunch of toffs, and Oswald Mosley's revenant. I wonder if the US will stop short of making the same mistake. Otherwise, yes, end of times might be an interesting thought experiment.

Originally Posted by Thug

Just read an interesting hypothesis ...

Thug- you are probably already aware, but for the benefit of other contributors the Guardian is a left wing publication that was staunchly in support of remain. There is absolutely nothing of any substance in the article - it is just an outlandish opinion piece from a disgruntled journalist with his nose of of joint.

If Boris Johnson had emerged smiling and pumping the air - no doubt the same journalist would have described him as a right wing triumphalist.

Originally Posted by gugi

Why do you think they would want such thing? I'd suspect they don't fancy themselves as props to some reincarnation of the British Empire for similar reasons that you aren't keen to be part of an European Empire if you're not calling the shots.

Personally I'm most curious on how much advantage UK can extract from the devalued pound. It's also a good time to profit from the volatility since so many people are so clueless how things work and let emotions overtake logic.

Gugi, if you take time to read what I wrote you'll see that I mentioned Commonwealth - not Empire. The British lost that when they had to cash in their overseas investments in order to subsidise WW2 and even that wasn't enough. It took loans from the USA - that were not finally paid off until 2006 by the way. So my references to Canada, Australia, NZ and SA were in relation to trading - something that joining the EU had a significant impact on, to their detriment.

Originally Posted by gugi

It's two years after the UK leader (probably PM, and likely not the current one) notifies EU that their country wishes to leave. Those two years are to negotiate what happens afterwards, when the two years are done the present UK-EU treaties are no longer valid even if they haven't agreed on something else.



Why, that makes your stuff more competitive with the stuff of other countries. Of course, you can always raise your prices to offset the devaluation of your currency if that's a problem.

For example, may be in 2011 you used to sell your stuff to customers in the USA for 100CAD and they were paying 100USD. You can keep selling for 100CAD but that means you can only buy 77USD worth of stuff with that. Since your customers in the USA get your things for 77USD instead of 100USD they may start buying more and the increased volume (if you have the capacity to take advantage of the demand) could increase your income in both CAD and USD.
If you want to stick with your 100CAD pricing you simply end up buying less things from USA, they end up with less demand for their stuff and may have to lower their prices.

Or you can increase your price to 130CAD, your USA customers will be paying the same 100USD, so they may be willing to stick with you, and you'll be making more money.

This lesson on the workings of exchange rates in a free market is exactly why the likes of Greece, Spain, Prtugal and Ireland have problems. Their economies need a devalued currency - but because they are part of the Eurozone their destiny is not in their hands - they have to rely on loans and yet more debt to manage from day to day.

Now I'm not saying that a currency devaluation would cure all their problems - but as you pointed out it's a good start.

Originally Posted by UKRob

Thug- you are probably already aware, but for the benefit of other contributors the Guardian is a left wing publication that was staunchly in support of remain. There is absolutely nothing of any substance in the article - it is just an outlandish opinion piece from a disgruntled journalist with his nose of of joint.

If Boris Johnson had emerged smiling and pumping the air - no doubt the same journalist would have described him as a right wing triumphalist.

Probably true but most journalists have some underlying agenda. It's either leftist or rightist viewpoints with none taking the centralist perspective.

Originally Posted by UKRob

Thug- you are probably already aware, but for the benefit of other contributors the Guardian is a left wing publication that was staunchly in support of remain. There is absolutely nothing of any substance in the article - it is just an outlandish opinion piece from a disgruntled journalist with his nose of of joint.

An interesting stance. Especially given the fact that the right wing publications were happily spreading known lies in support of the leave campaign, such as Mr Farage's £350M a week for NHS.

You might believe that the Economist is also a commie rag, yet still: Anarchy in the UK: Britain is sailing into a storm with no one at the wheel | The Economist

Originally Posted by UKRob

If Boris Johnson had emerged smiling and pumping the air - no doubt the same journalist would have described him as a right wing triumphalist.

For Mr Johnson to fall into any known political category, he would have to have principles attributable to known political denominations. Much like his orange hued idol in the US, however, Mr Johnson is a clown whose political positions osciallate widely.

Be that as it may, I am quietly enjoying watching the scenario unfold in all its brutal efficiency. The UK's attempt at leaving the EU will become a cautionary tale in a very short time. Messrs Johnson and Farage will soon have to learn that the EU is very good at turning plans into action in a very short time, and that their dream of keeping calm and starting negotiations in their own good time has always been that (and, of course, another known lie). The EU will make short shrift of the UK, and it has very many good reasons to do so, including, but not limited to, the lies being spread about it by the Leave campaign.

I think you gentlemen call this "poetic justice"...

Originally Posted by UKRob

So my references to Canada, Australia, NZ and SA were in relation to trading - something that joining the EU had a significant impact on, to their detriment.

That makes more sense, being part of EU means free access to the common EU market, but relations with non-EU countries are subject to EU policies. Being outside of EU does give you more flexibility to negotiate bilateral agreements, but I think it's more than fair to say that it's an uphill battle to end up with a net improvement (given the market reaction).

Originally Posted by UKRob

Now I'm not saying that a currency devaluation would cure all their problems - but as you pointed out it's a good start.

It's the simplest way to increase competitiveness, but it's a macro-economic approach. Ultimately it is not a cure to economic problems, as I said, just something that can soften a harder blow. The only cure is to increase the real competitiveness on microeconomic/structural level where the real problems are.

As I've posted many times, the old blue collar low-skill/high-paying jobs are gone for good and whatever are left out will continue to disappear. You can wall off a country and artificially re-create them for a time, but the rest of the world will not stop and will simply surpass you technologically and economically. Just like you can still pick cotton and manufacture textiles by hand like it was done before the industrial revolution, but you will not be able to afford things like a car, a phone, electricity, etc.

In any case, there are independent countries that are outside of EU or USA, or NAFTA or any number of liberalized trade zones and UK becoming one of them isn't some big tragedy like a war. It may end up better off or worse off, and it can apply to rejoin EU (if it actually leaves in the first place), or join a different trade union, etc. Plenty of possibilities, and there is nothing wrong with trying out different things and learning from mistakes if some of those things don't pan out as expected.

But as I stated when I started this thread - the much harder part of actually leaving EU is still ahead and the last few days seem to be proving it to be even harder than expected.

Lets just hope it does not sink to the level of a messy domestic divorce.

Bob