Thread: UK out of EU

Originally Posted by BobH

Lets just hope it does not sink to the level of a messy domestic divorce.

If you mean the EU getting rid of the UK, then I think chances are very slim. Although never tried before, the rules are relatively simple, and the path forward relatively straightforward. Things will only get messy if the UK does not move, and move fast. Because that would mean their making a UK problem an EU problem. And many countries, which have been appalled by the UK's demeanour for a very long time, will lose their patience very quickly.

But the problems will be elsewhere. I can see another Scottish referendum coming. I can see the peace process in Northern Ireland falter, or even fail. I can see tens of thousands of jobs in the City moving abroad. And those are just the things that are too big to overlook.

But there are many smaller things whose potential for trouble most people have not even begun to grasp. Just wait until the Leave people will have admit that they will have to break basically all promises they made during their campaign. Wait for Joe Random to realise that there will be the same amount of immigration. Wait till their pension funds start moving offshore, then melt away. And yes, wait for those "Original Berlin Pub Crawl" proles to realise that their money has just lost 30% of more of its buying power.

That is when things will get really messy. Nothing I look forward to, but something I expect to happen, and soon.

PS Everyone's favourite English chef asked to share this. And so I will: https://www.instagram.com/p/BHJkAITha9f/

Originally Posted by RobinK

If you mean the EU getting rid of the UK, then I think chances are very slim. Although never tried before, the rules are relatively simple, and the path forward relatively straightforward. Things will only get messy if the UK does not move, and move fast. Because that would mean their making a UK problem an EU problem. And many countries, which have been appalled by the UK's demeanour for a very long time, will lose their patience very quickly.

But the problems will be elsewhere. I can see another Scottish referendum coming. I can see the peace process in Northern Ireland falter, or even fail. I can see tens of thousands of jobs in the City moving abroad. And those are just the things that are too big to overlook.

But there are many smaller things whose potential for trouble most people have not even begun to grasp. Just wait until the Leave people will have admit that they will have to break basically all promises they made during their campaign. Wait for Joe Random to realise that there will be the same amount of immigration. Wait till their pension funds start moving offshore, then melt away. And yes, wait for those "Original Berlin Pub Crawl" proles to realise that their money has just lost 30% of more of its buying power.

That is when things will get really messy. Nothing I look forward to, but something I expect to happen, and soon.

PS Everyone's favourite English chef asked to share this. And so I will: https://www.instagram.com/p/BHJkAITha9f/

No, I mean devolve into acrimonious rounds of negotiations making an already difficult thing even worse. Your crystal ball is about as clear as mine or anyone else's when it comes to all the sky is falling possibilities arising from this mess. That is simply because this has never been attempted before so nobody really knows what the eventual outcome will be. All anyone is doing is speculating from their particular political/economic pov.

One thing for sure that the outcome of this referendum illustrates is that there is a large portion of the population that is unhappy with their lot for whatever multiple reasons. That is never a good thing for a country's stability. The Trump phenomenon in the US is another illustration of that type of discontent.

Bob

Originally Posted by BobH

No, I mean devolve into acrimonious rounds of negotiations making an already difficult thing even worse. Your crystal ball is about as clear as mine or anyone else's when it comes to all the sky is falling possibilities arising from this mess. That is simply because this has never been attempted before so nobody really knows what the eventual outcome will be. All anyone is doing is speculating from their particular political/economic pov.

Actually, that is not true. The outcome is extremely clear: The UK will cease to be part of the EU, and will lose all privileges associated therewith. It may be able to negotiate some sort of access to the single European market. However, and that is old news, too, if the UK wants to retain full access, it will almost certainly have to stick with most of the accompanying rules. Yes, that is, of course, another Leave promise broken. Meaning that the UK would have to apply to EU rules without getting a say in their making.

Originally Posted by BobH

One thing for sure that the outcome of this referendum illustrates is that there is a large portion of the population that is unhappy with their lot for whatever multiple reasons. That is never a good thing for a country's stability. The Trump phenomenon in the US is another illustration of that type of discontent.

I do not see that people are any more unhappy now than they were ten or twenty yeaers ago. The differences is that the media, and potential voters, are clowns getting away with being clowns, and a monumental amount of lies. Grillo, Varoufakis, Orban, von Storch, Wilders... The rise of these people to any sort of political prominence (and, worse, influence) would have been unthinkable a decade or longer ago. Their character, and behaviour, would have been deemed completely unfit for office. These days, not so much.

But the problem is not the people, the problem is the media. Investigative journalism is losing ground, and most US popular media are basically fact free. They call Fox News Faux News for a reason. If you fact check their relevant political content, you will find that about 50% of it is outright lies, and another 25% or more procent otherwise wrong or misleading. And people are fine by that. One could argue that they want to be lied to, but I doubt that this is true. I think that their inability to deal with an increasingly complex world, in which there may well be no place for them, is the main reason they prefer to listen to simple pseudo solutions. If you want to check this claim, take a look at Mr Trump's main voter base: Underprivileged, undereducated, living in areas of the country that are most likely economically doomed. I think that group of people is commonly referred to as White Trash in the US, and although I find that a rather offensive term in itself, it may well be true.

Originally Posted by RobinK

Actually, that is not true. The outcome is extremely clear: The UK will cease to be part of the EU, and will lose all privileges associated therewith. It may be able to negotiate some sort of access to the single European market. However, and that is old news, too, if the UK wants to retain full access, it will almost certainly have to stick with most of the accompanying rules. Yes, that is, of course, another Leave promise broken. Meaning that the UK would have to apply to EU rules without getting a say in their making.


I do not see that people are any more unhappy now than they were ten or twenty yeaers ago. The differences is that the media, and potential voters, are clowns getting away with being clowns, and a monumental amount of lies. Grillo, Varoufakis, Orban, von Storch, Wilders... The rise of these people to any sort of political prominence (and, worse, influence) would have been unthinkable a decade or longer ago. Their character, and behaviour, would have been deemed completely unfit for office. These days, not so much.

But the problem is not the people, the problem is the media. Investigative journalism is losing ground, and most US popular media are basically fact free. They call Fox News Faux News for a reason. If you fact check their relevant political content, you will find that about 50% of it is outright lies, and another 25% or more procent otherwise wrong or misleading. And people are fine by that. One could argue that they want to be lied to, but I doubt that this is true. I think that their inability to deal with an increasingly complex world, in which there may well be no place for them, is the main reason they prefer to listen to simple pseudo solutions. If you want to check this claim, take a look at Mr Trump's main voter base: Underprivileged, undereducated, living in areas of the country that are most likely economically doomed. I think that group of people is commonly referred to as White Trash in the US, and although I find that a rather offensive term in itself, it may well be true.

No the final outcome and all it's ramifications is certainly not clear. You completely miss the point of it being how the negotiations are carried out that can make it more difficult to get to a conclusion. They can either go as smoothly as possible or stumble from one sticking point to another as both sides try to extract some element of revenge. The latter being the more typical case in domestic divorces.

It is true that an increasingly large number of people in the western world feel left behind for whatever reasons, real or imagined. That does create fertile ground for politicians with formerly unacceptable ideas and standards of behavior to gain a following. To write those people who feel left behind off as having no place in the world has it's perils.

It is not necessarily the younger people who are unhappy but older ones. With most western countries having far more older people than younger, the older age group has a fair bit of political clout still. The younger age groups know nothing else but the way things are now while the larger older demographic has seen the changes and noticed how they are less well off now compared to previously.

Bob

Originally Posted by BobH

No the final outcome and all it's ramifications is certainly not clear. You completely miss the point of it being how the negotiations are carried out that can make it more difficult to get to a conclusion. They can either go as smoothly as possible or stumble from one sticking point to another as both sides try to extract some element of revenge.

Well, the best place to obtain such information will surely be the Leave campaign's website, right? So, here we are:

What happens the day after a vote to leave?
In the event of a vote to 'Leave' at the upcoming referendum on EU membership, our government would be obliged to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union (as amended by the Lisbon Treaty). This consists of two elements: the first is a two year notice period after which the UK ceases to be an EU Member State. The second puts in place the framework for negotiations towards an alternative trading agreement (for which there is no set time limit) with the EU after we leave. [Source]

And yes, that's it. People voted for this. Seriously. "Well, you know, we're gonna vote leave, and then we'll trigger Article 50, and then two years later, all will be nice and dandy." And you actually wonder why people in the EU are not amused?

And please spare me, and everyone else, this "revenge" nonsense. The EU is a political body, not one of Donald Trump's many wives or mistresses. The UK will be dealt with according to existing rules and regulations. Just because the EU will defend its own interests (or, rather, those of its member states) does not mean that the EU is out for revenge.

However, if I compare https://leave.eu/en/our-campaign#our-vision to the political and economic realities, many people will be in for several bitter disappointments. But that is because the Leave campaign lied, not because the EU is out for revenge.

Originally Posted by BobH

It is true that an increasingly large number of people in the western world feel left behind for whatever reasons, real or imagined. That does create fertile ground for politicians with formerly unacceptable ideas and standards of behavior to gain a following. To write those people who feel left behind off as having no place in the world has it's perils.

It most certainly does. But what do you want to do instead? Yes, you can build a wall, and keep international competition out. This might even work for a couple of years. But the sad truth is that some countries that have benefited immensely from globalisation in the past missed the point when they had to adapt their school systems, curricula, and higher education. You cannot have a high standard of living, free healthcare, and so on (technically speaking, the UK is a socialist state, despite Tories claiming that it's not - its welfare system is at least as good as Swedens, if not better) - yet have a workforce that is unable to compete internationally. And yes, loss of full access to the single European market will exarbate that challenge, too. Especially because the US will push the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership , and put the UK on the backburner...

Originally Posted by RobinK

An interesting stance. Especially given the fact that the right wing publications were happily spreading known lies in support of the leave campaign, such as Mr Farage's £350M a week for NHS.

You might believe that the Economist is also a commie rag, yet still: Anarchy in the UK: Britain is sailing into a storm with no one at the wheel | The Economist


For Mr Johnson to fall into any known political category, he would have to have principles attributable to known political denominations. Much like his orange hued idol in the US, however, Mr Johnson is a clown whose political positions osciallate widely.

Be that as it may, I am quietly enjoying watching the scenario unfold in all its brutal efficiency. The UK's attempt at leaving the EU will become a cautionary tale in a very short time. Messrs Johnson and Farage will soon have to learn that the EU is very good at turning plans into action in a very short time, and that their dream of keeping calm and starting negotiations in their own good time has always been that (and, of course, another known lie). The EU will make short shrift of the UK, and it has very many good reasons to do so, including, but not limited to, the lies being spread about it by the Leave campaign.

I think you gentlemen call this "poetic justice"...

Robin - everything you have written so far is nothing more than just another opinion - the fact is no-one knows how the negotiations will pan out but what we do know is that GB buys far more from the EC than it sells - as a political economist does that not tell you that at least we will start off with a stack of bargaining chips? Take a look at what your own contry's car makers have to say on the subject.

I'm afraid I lost a great deal of faith in your arguments when you stated that Nigel Farrage will be held accountable for statements he made - the man was not even part of the official leave campaign. He represents a party that has a single MP - although it's always possible that he could get a seat on a negotiating table - you could say the same for me.

Originally Posted by RobinK

Well, the best place to obtain such information will surely be the Leave campaign's website, right? So, here we are:

And yes, that's it. People voted for this. Seriously. "Well, you know, we're gonna vote leave, and then we'll trigger Article 50, and then two years later, all will be nice and dandy." And you actually wonder why people in the EU are not amused?

And please spare me, and everyone else, this "revenge" nonsense. The EU is a political body, not one of Donald Trump's many wives or mistresses. The UK will be dealt with according to existing rules and regulations. Just because the EU will defend its own interests (or, rather, those of its member states) does not mean that the EU is out for revenge.

However, if I compare https://leave.eu/en/our-campaign#our-vision to the political and economic realities, many people will be in for several bitter disappointments. But that is because the Leave campaign lied, not because the EU is out for revenge.


It most certainly does. But what do you want to do instead? Yes, you can build a wall, and keep international competition out. This might even work for a couple of years. But the sad truth is that some countries that have benefited immensely from globalisation in the past missed the point when they had to adapt their school systems, curricula, and higher education. You cannot have a high standard of living, free healthcare, and so on (technically speaking, the UK is a socialist state, despite Tories claiming that it's not - its welfare system is at least as good as Swedens, if not better) - yet have a workforce that is unable to compete internationally. And yes, loss of full access to the single European market will exarbate that challenge, too. Especially because the US will push the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership , and put the UK on the backburner...

OK, has anyone formally triggered "article 50" yet to start the clock running and put the framework into play for leaving.?

If you don't want to call it revenge then call it bitterness by either party can cause trouble in negotiations. Hopefully that does not happen but always possible where humans are involved.

There are far more people today with post secondary educations than at any time in the past making even those qualification less valuable that before. Simple supply and demand. I do not see where better educational qualifications necessarily leads to better job opportunities.

It is not what I want that matters. What matters is that the brain trusts that reshape things find a way to deal with that large disenfranchised group of people to try and keep stability. The US is not particularly a socialistic state by European standards so how do you explain a large portion of their workforce being non competitive globally to the point where a lot of jobs have been off shored there too? There are too many other factors at play than simply the level of education and how socialistic a country is that determine if large parts of it's work force are no longer competitive globally.

Canada has already concluded, in 2014, negotiations for The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the EU pending approval by the EU. When the EU approves it or not is anyone's guess. Then there is the TPP trade agreement which has been negotiated this year but needs ratification by the individual governments that signed to it, Canada and the US are among them. So yes, England will have to negotiate new separate trade deals if and when she leaves the EU. That is a given in todays world of trading blocks. Definitely a difficult and time consuming task.

Bob

Originally Posted by UKRob

I'm afraid I lost a great deal of faith in your arguments when you stated that Nigel Farrage will be held accountable for statements he made - the man was not even part of the official leave campaign. He represents a party that has a single MP - although it's always possible that he could get a seat on a negotiating table - you could say the same for me.

I guess it's not about if mr Farage is/was in a position to promise such things. You and i know he wasn't.
The real question is that what if someone did believe him, some who was lazy or had no capacity enough to find out how things really are.

Not only Farage, such promises and speeches are way too everyday now. Some politicians say things they know ain't true. Never mind if it turns out to be not-so-true. Good story goes on.

Just like one of our local, so called populist politician, accidentially said in TV: 'No matter how things are. What matters all is how you make people feel'. There is always someone who believes.
Later she said she had been misunderstood. What a coward.

Good story sells, no matter if it's true or not and that is what has been too common in politics for the last 20 years or so. Strenghten the fears of the people who already are worried and then point some outsider to blame.
We all know from the history that such way might have sad ending. Divide people in two and then make them against each other.

As what comes to relations between UK and EU i hope that everything will be solved civilized without strong feelings. I think iron auntie Angela said wisely without any bad feelings: Britain should be given time to solve their things, but not until forever.

Somewhat surprised to read iron auntie Angela comment. Too few voices of reason and far too many strident ones.

Bob

Originally Posted by BobH

Somewhat surprised to read iron auntie Angela comment. Too few voices of reason and far too many strident ones.

Bob

The voice of a reason, yes. And the same kind of messages we've been hearing from PM's of the other union´countries too. They speak with one voice in this. No need to over dramatize or make it ugly. Nothing happens before Britain officially claims resign. It is possible to start actions based on article 50 only after that.

But if, as i have reason to believe, Iceland will beat England in UEFA 16 later tonight, then the hell is loose
I'm looking forward. Already have beers waiting in the freezer.