Thread: Rimfire Ammo Shortage...

Originally Posted by HNSB

Manufacturers aren't going to make increases in production beyond a certain point for what they believe to be a temporary increase in demand.

+1.

The only way any factory is going to increase production capacity beyond what they can do with manpower increase alone, is if they have long term expectations of needing that capacity. Otherwise they won't get their investment (a new production line) back, and they will be stuck with the yearly maintenance cost of an unused line.

They know what they can expect. Additionally, once people start to get that the current shortage is due to hoarding, demand is likely to drop when people realize that they have more ammo than they know what to do with.

Originally Posted by HNSB

Manufacturers aren't going to make increases in production beyond a certain point for what they believe to be a temporary increase in demand.

I'm sorry, I disagree, unless these plant are running 24-7, all it would take is some overtime,or night shifts,and when demand decreases,then they could slow down,but the profit from the extra sales would pay for the overtime,and then some. JMHO

That's what I meant by "beyond a certain point".

A company is not going to add equipment or facilities to expand production capacity for a temporary increase in demand.

Originally Posted by Grizzley1

I'm sorry, I disagree, unless these plant are running 24-7, all it would take is some overtime,or night shifts,and when demand decreases,then they could slow down,but the profit from the extra sales would pay for the overtime,and then some. JMHO

Up to a point yes.

First of all, this is very expensive because wages are more costly per hour than for a day job. Additionally, you have to have time slotted in for maintenance or your production line will break down. You just cannot run a production line 24/7 for any length of time before the cost increases significantly.

However, ignoring all that consider the following scenario: Manufacturers instate 24 / 7 shifts. and hire a lot of extra crew. They'd need to, because you just need a lot more hot bodies to man the shifts. After a year, the ammo buyers finally come to their senses and recongize that they have been hoarding because others were hoarding (which is the case). Demand will drop significantly, along with prices.

What do they do then?
Fire all the ones they hired in the previous year, along with a part of the original staff that are not needed anymore because demand has dropped so much? This means mass layoffs, bad PR, cost of severance pay, union strikes, etc, plus the loss of qualified personnel. Quarterly earnings drop so the stock price drops as well. And then when demand goes back up after a while, they need to again hire new employees to replace the experienced ones they lost during the layoff round?

Manufacturin planning is a LOT more complex than saying 'quick, let's make more X'. Beyond the point where capacity can be increased by working overtime and moderate increases in workforce, it all depends on long term expectations. If the companies themselves don't see a long term uptake in demand, they know that quickly dumping large amounts of ammo on the temporary demand will hurt them in the end.

Plenty of very smart finance guys will have looked at their situation already and they will have run the numbers to see if there's extra money to be had. They're not stupid. If anything, they're greedy . If none of them are planning a significant upstep in production capabilities, it's because they know it's not worth it.

As an aside: hoarding is one of the surefire ways to destabilize economies and cause artificial scarcity. Economies have fairly long lag times between supply matching demand. Stable economies depend on supply and demand evolving only slowly.

If supply picks up to meet the demand and demand drops again, prices will plummet, there will be closing and layoffs, and availability of the product will drop to below the original levels. At that point the resource becomes actually scarce instead of artificially scarce, and hoarding will begin in earnest. And then it will be a long time before supply gets back to the original levels, all while the products has become a lot more expensive than in the beginning.

Companies need stability to turn a profit. Without stability, they'll just go under because supply management and production are by needs planned in years, not weeks.

ammo factories are already running 24/7.
People are training with whatever they can. Since things like 223, 308, 9mm, 45 etc are in small supply, 22 is a alternative so very few around.
Also the US is "cough" buying tons of ammo for DHS etc.
As a side note, I am seeing ammo starting to be available here now in small amounts.

I know CCI is running 3 shifts right now...

You guys also have to keep in the back of your mind besides Law Enforcement, we have been in a "War" for over 10 years, there are Billions of rounds to account for there, this "Shortage" started years ago with Primers, and has just steadily grown worse...


"Stock Market dips a little today, as the Worldwide Bullet Currency standard shifts with the opening of a new plant in China"
AP dateline 1/10/2025

Originally Posted by Bruno

Up to a point yes.

First of all, this is very expensive because wages are more costly per hour than for a day job. Additionally, you have to have time slotted in for maintenance or your production line will break down. You just cannot run a production line 24/7 for any length of time before the cost increases significantly.

However, ignoring all that consider the following scenario: Manufacturers instate 24 / 7 shifts. and hire a lot of extra crew. They'd need to, because you just need a lot more hot bodies to man the shifts. After a year, the ammo buyers finally come to their senses and recongize that they have been hoarding because others were hoarding (which is the case). Demand will drop significantly, along with prices.

What do they do then?
Fire all the ones they hired in the previous year, along with a part of the original staff that are not needed anymore because demand has dropped so much? This means mass layoffs, bad PR, cost of severance pay, union strikes, etc, plus the loss of qualified personnel. Quarterly earnings drop so the stock price drops as well. And then when demand goes back up after a while, they need to again hire new employees to replace the experienced ones they lost during the layoff round?

Manufacturin planning is a LOT more complex than saying 'quick, let's make more X'. Beyond the point where capacity can be increased by working overtime and moderate increases in workforce, it all depends on long term expectations. If the companies themselves don't see a long term uptake in demand, they know that quickly dumping large amounts of ammo on the temporary demand will hurt them in the end.

Plenty of very smart finance guys will have looked at their situation already and they will have run the numbers to see if there's extra money to be had. They're not stupid. If anything, they're greedy . If none of them are planning a significant upstep in production capabilities, it's because they know it's not worth it.

With all due respect Bruno, I worked in broadcast TV for 25 yrs. and we did it with no extra people other than the same staff the was there on every shift. Maintenance was preformed around the clock as necessary,with no interruption in service,(unless someone goofed) and the company bean counters kept it VERY profitable, I'm sure that there are people smarter than both of us that could remedy the situation if properly motivated....JMHO

Originally Posted by gssixgun

I know CCI is running 3 shifts right now...

I heard Federal is also running more shifts too. Also consider the raw materials lead, brass and other material from suppliers around the world are also part of the equation resulting is the "perfect storm" of ammo shortage. Shelves are bare for rimfire and just about everything else except for shotgun in south Florida. Much of the gun related economy has increased in the order of 200 to 300 percent in just a few years. I guess we just have to be patient to allow the market to adjust to the phenomenon.

Lets not ignore an obvious (to me anyways) possibility, that the manufacturers are also "hoarding" ammo, to create the very shortage that is now upon us. Law of supply and demand! You want it, it doesn't exist, suddenly your paying way more than before. And I will be a doughnut with a center hole the size of a .22 that when the ammo shortage is over, the prices dont come down any where near as much as they went up!